Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($11.20)
BB ($50)
UTG ($37.30)
Hero (UTG+1) ($98.65)
MP1 ($77.40)
MP3 ($15.05) STATS: (VPIP:8/ PFR: 7/ AF:infinity / Hands: 58)
CO ($35.65)
Button ($76.35)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J♣, J♦
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $5, 5 folds
Hero???
Push or Fold?
some equity calculation i made (please check for wrong assumptions):
Spieler 1: 46,985% JJ
Spieler 2: 53,015% TT+,AQo+,AQs+
I think only pushing is possible if not fold. So the potodds for pushing are:
Potodds 12,50$: (2,5+0,5+5+15$) = 12,5$:23$= 1:1,84
equity needed: 1:2,8 = 35%
Pushing would be possible, but i think he only calls my push with a much stronger range, like:
Spieler 1: 36,201% JJ
Spieler 2: 63,799% QQ+,AKo,AKs
This is not that good. for further analysis i calculated the EV for a push with the assumptions
- he folds everything, but QQ+,AK+
fold: 1x JJ, 16x AQ, 6xTT = 25
call: 6x KK, 6xQQ, 6x AA, 16x AK = 34
-> fold = 25/34 = 0,73
-> call = 0,28
EV= 0,73* 7,5$ + 0,28*(0,36*23$ - 0,64*23$) = +3,7$
I think its still close and the push has a high variance. The problem ist, that i have not many hands to put him on a straight forward SSS.