[Closed] Ak, Fl 20, Fr

turn is definately a fold for me. you are drawing dead very often imo
right now i´m even thinking about folding the flop. you only have two overs and two backdoordraws and AA and/or QQ are possible... furthermore you aren´t closing the action so there is a good chance that there will be more action behind you as BB doesn´t look like he is shy when it comes down to betting or raising ;). on the other hand you are getting quite good odds...
looks like a fold to me.

cirith ?

Hi straddler71,

I would fold this flop directly.

The risk of being 3-bet or capped is too high and your outs aren't clean enough.

The long version:

if they are reasonable I see them holding AA-QQ, AK-AQ.
You have 0 outs against AA and QQ, 3 outs against KK and AQ, split against AK. You have 1,5 backdoorflushdraw outs, 0,5 for the backdoorstraightdraw.

You get 19:1 (8,5:1) on the flop with the high risk of being 3-bet or cap.
If it get's capped you have to pay 23:3 (7,66:1) or 25:4 (6,25:1).
Let's say you get 8:1 on the long run. That means you need 5 clean outs to coldcall the first time.

2 outs are pretty clean for the backdoordraws. So you need 3 more outs from you overcards.

There are 3 different AA, KK and QQ combinations. (A♥ A♦, A♥ A♣ or A♦ A♣. Same for the K and Q in different colors of course.)

9 AK and AQ combinations.

As you split only if they have AK the odds you get are lower for these outs.
I'm not sure but I think it's ok to just go by the half amout of combinations for the calculation.

Altogether:

6 * 0 outs + 9 * 3 outs + 4,5 * 6 outs = discounted outs.

=> 0 + 27 + 27 outs / (6 + 9 + 4,5) = 2,77 discounted outs.

2 outs + 2,77 outs = 4,77 outs < 5 outs so you should fold the flop directly.

This seems to be close. In real you often has less outs than that as you play against two opponents which means that you often play against AQ and AK or AQ and AA, etc..

Thanks for the analysis frzl and cirith. I struggle with the overcards scenerio and sometimes don't let go soon enough. Im I remember correctly the ace on the end would have been good for me, the king was also an out.

Matt