[NL2-NL10] NL 10 Set on flushed board

    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $10,20
      MP3:
      $23,42
      CO:
      $10,36

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8:heart: , 8:diamond:
      MP3 calls $0,10, CO raises to $0,60, BU folds, Hero calls $0,55, BB folds, MP3 calls $0,50.

      Flop: ($1,90) 8:club: , 3:club: , 6:club: (3 players)
      Hero bets $1,30, MP3 calls $1,30, CO folds.

      Turn: ($4,50) 7:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $1,50, Hero calls $1,50.

      River: ($7,50) K:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $3,10, Hero calls $3,10.

      Final Pot: $13,70

      Im not sure exactly why but i did put him on the flush here (maybe it was that he had 90% fold to CB), and choose this line. Didnt have any intention on calling the river from the begining but then as always i thought of this concept of showdown value (that always makes me loose money) and called.
  • 16 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Preflop: I do not like to call such a raise and also being out of position.
      Flop: Luckily you hit your SET. Bet here.
      Turn: Bet.
      River: Bet 1/2 pot.
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Preflop: I know its close here with 16,7 times the raise efficient but imo its a possible call for set value, the 20:1 rule is with marginal.

      Flop: A donk here is again imo correct when this player rarely CB himself(somwhere around 25%). i did expect him to call with worse hands here but something in his action made me very suspicious and my gut feeling said it was a made flush, therefore i decided to slow down.

      Turn: c/c only in hopes to hit the boat, his bet made me more sure that my read was correct.

      River: was playing c/f here but then after almost all my time was out i decided to call. the reasons i called was 1) i wanted to see if my read was right 2) i thought that maybe i have some showdown value, he might have an overpair afraid of the donkbet on the flushed board.

      Decision 1: is imo nothing to analyse, i wanted info and was willing to pay for it.
      Desision 2: with my read should i fold here or not, i usally fold when my gut feeling tells me to but im not sure that thi is a good thing

      PS. this was my actual thought process and no after-rationalisation, it now happens that i was dead on in this spot and i usally are when i call to see if i am but i dont know if i really could trust it that much. A long time ago when i played NL100 and NL200 i always trusted it, but after a major tilt that lasted for several month(partly due to my friends outrageous success in poker, went pro after 3 month, a fact i couldn't handle at that stage in my life) i stopped playing poker for a year and have never been able to fully recover since that. I dont have the faith in my own ability anymore and im still doing alot of stupid mistakes due to inpatients.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      And how did that happen with your friend ?:P Or what happened, what is he playing and etc?
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Well, at that time we played alot of homegames and had only started playing online. We had both been playing for a couple of years and where each others equals at the table, difference being that i read alot of poker books and knew the mathematical approaches, he was just a natural and had no clue of outs. Anyway one day there was a launch of a new poker client on its own network(i know im old :) ), after i had played there for a day with good profit, they had a enormous amot of fish, i called him up to tell him about the site and advice him to invest some money there, said and done. One week later $20 had become $1k, the next week a tournament victory made $1k; $21k and with an extremely aggressive BR management, he soon made it to the biggest limits at the site, NL500. The rest is history and he has now played for living for 3 years and has no need to ever work again.

      Ps. he still doesn't have a clue about odds.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Standard, I have few friends too who have cashed big in tournaments and actually don't know about outs and odds also. And to you... I think if you used to play @ NL100 & NL200, that's pretty good also! Just don't give up, keep going. Also @ NL100 & NL200 I guess you can make living, am I wrong? Myself I am not playing that high yet, hope one day I will :P
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      preflop is fine. If you don't expect to get a cbet on the flop, the donk is fine. On the turn I either bet myself or play c/r, but not c/c, because you don't protect by doing that, nor you get value.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Originally posted by TribunCaesar
      preflop is fine. If you don't expect to get a cbet on the flop, the donk is fine. On the turn I either bet myself or play c/r, but not c/c, because you don't protect by doing that, nor you get value.
      This is one thing i dont understand. If im sure he has the flush(which i am in this case) i have 10 outs to the best hand, thats 3,5:1, his bet gives me 4:1 + implied odds. Why should i raise???

      PS. I would fold to a bigger bet in this spot.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by Menel
      If im sure he has the flush(which i am in this case)
      You can't be :) He could just as well be playing something like TPTK+nutflush draw (Ac8x) that's trying to draw/see showdown cheaply
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      How can you be so sure he has a flush? He could have the A,K or Q of clubs. He could have 66 or 33. he could have 99+

      If you play passive here, you let ppl suckout on you and lose value. Just play like you have the nuts and if you are behind you can still make FH or even Quads lol. If you play scared, you lose in the long run.

      The probability of him flopping a flush is very very low so by playing aggressively you will win big everytime villain doesnt flop a flush, which is nearly every time.

      Flop: Bet pot
      Turn: Bet pot or enough to get him all in on river
      River: Shove or c/c if he might bluff a missed FD
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Im still not convinced, im not saying that u r wrong, its only that during the 8 years i have been playing poker(more or less) i have seen behaviour like his hundreds maybe thousands of times(when i play, i play 50k hands a month) and very few times has my read been incorrect in these situations(its not only his bet, its his response time, both pre and postflop also). From my experience i have come to the conclusion that when someone shows this behaviour i can be 80 - 90 % sure that my read is correct. If its wrong to trust such a read, when then, should i ever trust a read.
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by Menel
      Im still not convinced, im not saying that u r wrong, its only that during the 8 years i have been playing poker(more or less) i have seen behaviour like his hundreds maybe thousands of times(when i play, i play 50k hands a month) and very few times has my read been incorrect in these situations(its not only his bet, its his response time, both pre and postflop also). From my experience i have come to the conclusion that when someone shows this behaviour i can be 80 - 90 % sure that my read is correct. If its wrong to trust such a read, when then, should i ever trust a read.
      Has your read ever been wrong? I find it hard to believe ppl are flopping flushes so often against you.
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Ehh ofcourse i have been wrong... thats why i said 80-90%. No they dont flop flush so often there are several hand they play the same way, it was only a flush this time.

      Anyway im not trying to say that im so good or anything, im only trying to get to the bottom of how to play in this situation and i think there are some different opinions out there. I respect ur opinion and will consider it in these situations in the future.
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      You prob play much better than me anyway lol
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      If you think your read is that good, well play like it. I am not conviced, that he always has it, and therefore a set is nutz.
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Originally posted by TribunCaesar
      If you think your read is that good, well play like it. I am not conviced, that he always has it, and therefore a set is nutz.
      So u would push here in any situation?

      I think my read is that good but maybe im overconfident in it, thats why i posted. Im willing to change here if i get some compelling arguments, i mean if i was always right in my thoughts i would be pro - im not, therefore i cant say that im right but i would like some good arguments to change what seems to be working.
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      well, give hima range and evaluate our hand against that range. I would give him overpairs + ne card fd, just one card fd, pairs, sets, flushs