[NL2-NL10] QTc CO - monster draw on turn

    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $5.73
      BB:
      $1.85
      UTG1:
      $14.95
      MP3:
      $9.55
      Hero:
      $12.09
      BU:
      $4.90

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:club: , T:club:
      UTG1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, BU calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0.60) K:spade: , 7:heart: , 9:club: (6 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, UTG1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, BU checks.

      Turn: ($0.60) 8:club: (6 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $1.75 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds.

      River: ($4.10) A:club: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $4.10
  • 6 replies
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      • 28.03.2009, 20:51
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by Fongie: 28.03.2009 20:51.
      Well let's see

      On the turn you have pot odds 1.75 : 2.34 ~ 1 : 1.34 With this you need 57% breakeven equity.

      If you equilate your hand you will see that you don't have over 50% against any one pair hand. For example:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 47,727 % 47,727 % 0,000 % 52,273 % QcTc
      Player 2: 52,273 % 52,273 % 0,000 % 47,727 % 8d3d

      You're not even ahead of a turned pair of 8s with no kicker :P
      So you need to fold here, despite the draw :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Preflop: Isolate them, raise it up or just fold. I don't like to call here.
      Flop: OK.
      Turn: Fold, I don't like such big variance. Only one card is coming.
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by Fongie
      Well let's see

      On the turn you have pot odds 1.75 : 2.34 ~ 1 : 1.34 With this you need 57% breakeven equity.

      If you equilate your hand you will see that you don't have over 50% against any one pair hand. For example:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 47,727 % 47,727 % 0,000 % 52,273 % QcTc
      Player 2: 52,273 % 52,273 % 0,000 % 47,727 % 8d3d

      You're not even ahead of a turned pair of 8s with no kicker :P
      So you need to fold here, despite the draw :)
      Aren't I getting 42% pot odds? Call $1.75 to recieve $4.10=1.75/4.10=42%
    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      it's 1:75:2:34 and not 1.75/4.10 because at the turn, when villain went all-in, you haven't committed that last 1.75 yet. The amount in the pot was $2.34. So, you're not really commiting 1.75 to win 4.10, because you're actualy still holding that 1.75. If you fold, you keep the 1.75. however, the 2.34 already in the pot is different, it's not money that u have control over. so that's why you're investing 1.75(which you control) to win the 2.34 that you dont' control.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by williamtywong
      it's 1:75:2:34 and not 1.75/4.10 because at the turn, when villain went all-in, you haven't committed that last 1.75 yet. The amount in the pot was $2.34. So, you're not really commiting 1.75 to win 4.10, because you're actualy still holding that 1.75. If you fold, you keep the 1.75. however, the 2.34 already in the pot is different, it's not money that u have control over. so that's why you're investing 1.75(which you control) to win the 2.34 that you dont' control.
      +1
      I had difficulties with this in the start aswell, but I just think of it as paying my calling amount to win the amount that's already been put in the pot.

      I recommend this article:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/fixed-limit/1219/

      Dunno why there isn't one in the NL section
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      • 29.03.2009, 07:50
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by Fongie: 29.03.2009 07:51.
      Originally posted by Fongie
      Well let's see

      On the turn you have pot odds 1.75 : 2.34 ~ 1 : 1.34 With this you need 57% breakeven equity.

      If you equilate your hand you will see that you don't have over 50% against any one pair hand. For example:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 47,727 % 47,727 % 0,000 % 52,273 % QcTc
      Player 2: 52,273 % 52,273 % 0,000 % 47,727 % 8d3d

      You're not even ahead of a turned pair of 8s with no kicker :P
      So you need to fold here, despite the draw :)
      I correct myself by the way, I blame tiredness.. Of course you don't need 57% breakeven equity (this is impossible unless you can lose more than villain in a hand :evil: ), you need 42,7%. As you see you're still only breakeven against a turned pair of 8s before rake (with rake it's -ev), and behind against most made hands. So you still need to fold :)