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[NL20-NL50] NL50SH AK tricky vs unknown

    • silent21
      Joined: 08.08.2008 Posts: 1,556
      Hero (BB): $50.75
      UTG: $58.65
      MP: $50.00
      CO: $72.75
      BTN: $49.25
      SB: $110.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A:diamond: K:club:
      2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, SB calls $5.25

      Flop: ($15.75) 7:heart: 3:diamond: A:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $9.00, SB calls $9

      Turn: ($33.75) 7:club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($33.75) T:club (2 players)
      SB bets $33.75, Hero ?

      villain is complete unknown. if he is decent i guess his range is 33/77/ AJ+, unlikely AA. if he got me beat i am way behind if not i am kind ahead. Is checking turn to induce bet from him on the river +EV?

      btw on the turn when 7 paired i think he range is even narrow because 77 is soo unlikey as there is only 1 combination.

      is raising an option ?
  • 3 replies
    • eszibit
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      I think because he is extremely passive preflop and postflop untill river he isn't a decent player. if he has 33,77 here then he has no odds to call your raise my opinion he either has 10-10 and he catches the river and tries to get it in or A10 - he tries not to make a big pot (check/call flop,check turn) untill he makes top two pair and thinks he can stack you off if u have another ace.Given the fact that you don't know him i think this is a fold.That's my 2 cents :)
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      if he has you beat, that's too bad. This is a 3-bet pot and your decision on the flop is to aim to get it in by the river.

      Since villain is unknown, I would bet slightly bigger, like $10. I'm sure most players at your limits don't know how to read bet sizes.

      The turn is a blank/helper card. The 7 makes it very unlikely for him to have 77, thus the only thing that beats you is 33/A7/AA (A7 and AA are both very unlikely). He could easily be playing with dominated aces so just play bet/call on all streets. DO NOT check the turn, there is no reason for you to go for pot control since you beat most of his range.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      7x is not so likely, so I think youré still ahead on the turn and should get more value against Ax hands
      You should call river, since your hand is underrepresented and he can bet pot with any Ax hand or sometimes just some pp that didn´t want to fold on the flop