SSS - question about preflop equity

    • delete461
      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      Something I still dont understand about preflop equity. For example we have TT and our opponent openraises with a PFR of 11. We have 54% equity against his range, therefore we are ahead and we shove all in. At first this would seem to be profitable - in the long run we have the better hand 54% of the time. However the profitability of this depends on us betting the same amount each time we are ahead of his range, and this simply doesnt happen. Our opponent then folds the hands at the lower end of his range and calls with hands at the high end, meaning we are effectively betting 20bb against his best hands and only 3 - 4 bb against his worst hands. We should still win 54% of the time and lose 46%, but the opponent is choosing the amount to bet each time so we are winning small pots and losing big ones. How is this profitable?
  • 2 replies
    • RahXephon1
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]

      This is the exact formula for your expected value. You can estimate the fold equity by judging which hands out of his range will he fold. This will also show you, that against an opponent who calls very tight you can tribet with more hands, since you will mostly profit from his folds and against an opponent that calls loose you need a hand that beats his range strongly, so you get more value.

      I hope this is clear, otherwise don't hesitate to ask.

      P.S. Your question, reminded me that I promised to myself to calculate the expected values of close tribets in regards to fold equity. I need to stop being lazy.

      P.P.S. I have maybe made some mistakes in those statements, because I'm not very experienced yet, if someone sees anything that's wrong just correct it.
    • JohnDoe1313
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,035
      Originally posted by RahXephon1
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]
      To understand it clear, the variable "Equity" is our equity against range when we get called, right? Also I don't know why there is -blind in (eff.Stack-Blind), since if we are in blinds then our sb/bb should be dead money and not part of our eff. stack?