Major Leaks on No Limit $50 Shorthanded - Part 3

    • delphino
      delphino
      Silver
      Joined: 17.02.2008 Posts: 8,553
      I've watched this video: http://en.pokerstrategy.com/video/9893

      It's a really good video, but i'm a little bit confused about the calculation the coach did in 40:00

      EV = pFold 17$ + 1 ( 1 - pFold ) * ( 0.22 ( 45$ + 10$ ) - 0.78 45$ )
      edit: EV = pFold 17$ + ( 1 - pFold ) * ( 0.22 ( 45$ + 10$ ) - 0.78 45$ )

      The bold part is about the EV when you shove. But note:

      ( 0.22 ( 45$ + 10$ ) - 0.78 45$ ) = -23$

      It says that shove against villain's 3bet is unprofitable. So the Hero should not check/raise/push. He should check/raise/fold instead.

      I'm not sure if one can take 2 decisions and put all in the same calculation to get the EV. Any ideias?
  • 4 replies
    • delphino
      delphino
      Silver
      Joined: 17.02.2008 Posts: 8,553
      anyone?

      another thing:
      I do not understand why hasenbraten consider that the hero is gonna lose 45$ if when the villains does not fold he is going to be with less then 45$ in the stack
    • CBFunk
      CBFunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.12.2006 Posts: 1,934
      Hi delphino,

      I will forward your thread to hasenbraten and you will have an answer asap :)

      Best regards,

      Clemens
    • hasenbraten
      hasenbraten
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2006 Posts: 3,587
      in general you always have to differentiate for each action. so if or if not the cr itself is +EV has nothing to do with the decision of calling or folding after (if calling is +EV it can actually make the -EV cr overall +EV but since if calling gets -EV i can always choose the 0-EV-fold and therefor the affect my 2nd decision will have on the overall EV ist at the worst neutral). So given c/r is +EV you need to determin wether or not to call in a new calculation.

      However, after checkraising i just leave myself around 20 for an about 100-Pot so, saying the c/r is +EV you then need to decide if you want to call the shove. since there is a slight chance he will be shoving hands against which we dont only have a flushdraw (e.g. KQ or heart/other spade draws once in a while) i assume our equity will be above 20% and we can call then

      running numbers leaves you with the approximation:
      EQ >= 20/100
      the bare FD leaves you about 20% vs 1 pair already, 16% vs sets. So you will need him to have smth against which you can count a few more outs, vs KQ we have 27% already in some rare cases he might shove some hearts-combodraw or such which leaves the call close but still slightly +EV prolly
    • delphino
      delphino
      Silver
      Joined: 17.02.2008 Posts: 8,553
      got it