[Closed] Nl100Sh Jj

I shove.

Board: 8c 3c 3h 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.311% 45.98% 01.33% 607 17.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 52.689% 51.36% 01.33% 678 17.50 { JJ-88, 33, AcKc, AcQc, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, A3s, Ac2c, KcQc, KcTc, Tc9c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, 43s }

Note that we "only" have a flip, but there are already 68BB in the pot: we only need around 30% equity but we have 50% -> +EV already even if he calls 100%.
So any amount of foldequity will result in massive +EV.

Villain 35/10/1/19/66hands,

is the '1' the ag fac? if so, I am wondering if villain bets out pot vs 2 opps with his draws here that offten.

wondering how that affects our analysis...

The one is the AF I think.

It does affect the analysis of the hand if we assume he doesn't lead out with draws, but in this case it doesn't change the result because we still only need 30% equity and removing some draws from his range would not nearly lower our equity that much.

i dont like the raise on flop, especcially such strange minraise.
Just look, player is passive, he bets op in 2 villians and bets much. Def its not Fh, but it could easyly be trips (esp. low), fd, overpairs. Medium overpairs gona fold alot on our raise, we are ip and have blocker on fd so i would call and see what happens.
what do u think?

Yep 1 is AF, but its just 66 hands, so it doesnt matter much it think.

Originally posted by VzLOM
i dont like the raise on flop, especcially such strange minraise.
Just look, player is passive, he bets op in 2 villians and bets much. Def its not Fh, but it could easyly be trips (esp. low), fd, overpairs. Medium overpairs gona fold alot on our raise, we are ip and have blocker on fd so i would call and see what happens.
what do u think?

What is your plan for a) turns if he bets again and b) non- turns (assuming he bets something in the range of 1/2-3/4)?

What if he checks?

IF another comes dont i just get it in like i did. Dont i need to bet anyway, doesnt matter what card comes ♠_confused:

Originally posted by kevvu
IF another comes dont i just get it in like i did. Dont i need to bet anyway, doesnt matter what card comes ♠_confused:

That was I was trying to point out:
You're getting it in anyway, so if he has you beat you'll lose your stack one way or another, but by raising the flop you at least get value against FDs.
On the flop against FD+1over you have 60% equity whereas on a club turn you have 9% (against a worse flush you have 28% on the flop and 25% on the turn).

Against 3x you have 22% on a club turn and 5% on a non-club-turn, on the flop you have ~13%.
So it doesn't really make a difference on which street you get it in vs 3x, but it makes a big difference against a x :club:x hand.
Therefore I rather raise the flop.

Btw if he has a FD and doesn't hit there's also a chance you don't get him AI on the turn, so you lose even more value.

If he bets again i fold most of the time - its too strong line for such villian. Dont matter spade pr not, we could be dead already.
if u think that fd is the biggest part pf his range - then raise bigger?

Originally posted by VzLOM
If he bets again i fold most of the time - its too strong line for such villian. Dont matter spade pr not, we could be dead already.

if u think that fd is the biggest part pf his range - then raise bigger?

Imo calling the flop with the plan of folding a blank turn is too weak, 3x and 88 are a very small part of his range.

Given the stacksizes I think the raisesize is ok, if we assume FDs make up for the most part of his range we can play almost perfectly on the turn against him: shove non-clubs, check behind and probably give up on any club.

If he was fullstacked I'd make it a bit bigger to be able to comfortably stick it in on the turn.

dont we give him good odds by raising this small ?

Originally posted by VzLOM
dont we give him good odds by raising this small ?

Yes we do - but we know that he has a flush the vast majority of the time if a club hits and we're in position, so he has zero implied odds and it is still +EV for us to raise that small.
He also might call a shove on the turn in which case we're getting the money in great.

Originally posted by Bierbaer

Originally posted by VzLOM
dont we give him good odds by raising this small ?

Yes we do - but we know that he has a flush the vast majority of the time if a club hits and we're in position, so he has zero implied odds and it is still +EV for us to raise that small.
He also might call a shove on the turn in which case we're getting the money in great.

UPD: now i get it, with the range given by you at the beggining we at least flipping on spade turn (that was surprise for me btw) and we have 64% on nonspade.

PS: what do u do if he jams flop? just get it in?
PSS: what do u think of PPs that also in his range and gona fold alot on raise? Btw donk oop - is not basic line for fd, we all know it.

ad PS)
If he jams I get it in, 3x is a small part of his range and we don't need much equity to shove since we already invested over a third of our stack.

ad PPS)
If he has an overpair I think he won't fold too often.
In case he has 44-77 we wouldn't get much value either way, so we don't lose any value against those by raising.

Btw what does "UPD" mean.

Thanks for responses , Bierbaer

Btw what does "UPD" mean.

that means "update" - first i thought u wana fold on spade turn and i wrote wrong message, then edit it and write UPD )