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[NL2-NL10] That's it! I'm folding kings from now on!

    • z1pz0r
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      I have played more than 8500 hands on NL 5 and my overall win
      from KK is -12$! I mostly lost money because of my pre-flop play.

      Let's see random KK vs AA situation.
      Full ring table (9 players)
      You are on the button
      UTG2 raises to 4 BB
      everyone folds, You reraise to 12 BB
      SB and BB fold
      UTG2 goes all-in

      You identified UTG2 as a rock or as a TAG after having his stats on more than 500 hands.
      Both you and UTG2 have 100 BBs large stacks (but playing deeply stacked would prove this even more).
      You have also played enough hands at this table, that by stats other can recognise you as a TAG

      Now you have to ask yourself, what would a rock or a TAG go all in with? The answer is, of course KK or AA

      You have 3 options:

      You go all in
      Now let's calculate overall winnings of going all in
      - Let's say that UTG2 also has KK (which is less likely for obvious reasons). In this case, you split the pot (there are of course chances of getting flush but so does your opponent). In 50% of cases, you gain nothing
      -UTG2 shows AA
      You lose, but in every 4.2 times you can hit a king. Unfortunately, aces can too (which happened a lot to me). I'll estimate this to winning every 5. time. (I don't know how to calculate it so correct me if I'm wrong). Overall, you have -4$ lose.

      Overall that's -2$ for every time you go all in.

      You call
      Flops without kings will be often. UTG2 is also betting on the flop for sure. You won't know where you stand with your hand.

      You fold
      That's the option I'll be using from now on (after today's several KK vs AA beatdowns).

      I know I wrote this as I'm trying to engage you to kings folding, but I'm just asking for opinions and help with my king hands.

      EDIT: I apologize if I posted this into wrong forum.
  • 8 replies
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      8500 hands is still rather small sample.
      Not making any calculations, but.. If UTG is rock/nit and his 4betting/preflop shoving range is KK+, just fold it. But to fold KK I would need reaaaaaally good reason, like 1% opps 4betting range in such a situation over solid sample size and some observations about his playing style. You are bad only against KK+, if you widen up his range to QQ+, AK then you are totally ahead and gonna call it all day long. If he sees you as aggro player who is 3betting a lot and stuff, he can easily get pissed of and shove AK, QQ or even worse hands, but again - unless he's rock sitting on cliff.
    • Berzerger
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Are you really that sure your opponent exclusively pushes with nothing but KK+? On NL5?
    • Janosikgdy
      Joined: 06.05.2007 Posts: 4,480
      Remember none of nits fold KK. If you hit with your KK vs AA, next time when you hold AA, nit will give it back with his KK.

      What is more from time to time they push QQ/AKs/Tilt and you there profits with your kings.

      And if you don't get actions from worse when you hold KK it might means that you play to tight on preflop.
      What are your stats?
    • z1pz0r
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      I know that I'm getting money back from AA vs KK's but why lose money with KK vs AA if you dont have to? And from my experience, people with extremelly tight stats never push all-in with qq/ak.
      Don't get me wrong, I still push all-in against every regular and unknown player.

      My stats:
      10.86/4.85/41.20 (VP/PR/AFq)
    • Tampaloeres81
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Wow thats nitty :D should be more like 14/12 or so. and the gap between VP and PR is waay too large. If you dont want to play more hands, then play like 10/9 or so.
      what is your 3bet stat?
    • Sasa1234
      Joined: 22.05.2008 Posts: 298
      Folding KK on NL 5? Just ship it! 8500 hands is not nearly big enough sample size to know if your preflop all-ins with KK is EV+
    • z1pz0r
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      Okay thanks for all the answers, I'll still keep going all-in and see if my bankroll improves. Oh yea, and it seems I need to start raising pre-flop a bit more.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I also tried to make hero folds with kings, but with 100bb it is just burning money
      If nits have any reason how to play pf they would 3-bet and 4-bet also AK and likely QQ
      So every time if you decide to fold kings pf you make quite big mistake
      Also if they have KK and you AA you should end up all-in pf