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[Closed] KK with crazy flop

7 Posts
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Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;BB$2.28:14/71 /21 /1.4/40 /-/-/75 ;UTG$1.82:523/10 /7 /2.8/27 /22 /100 /59 ;Hero$1.41:///////;[/tg]
0.05/0.1 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BU with K♠, K♦
UTG raises, 6 folds, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB caps, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) A♥, K♥, J♠ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 6♠ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

River: (16.70 BB) 2♥ (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 24.70 BB


6 replies

Hello!

This is a very interesting hand. There isn't much information on BB with only 14 hands but we can see his tendency to raise rather premium hands. Since he caps, I do expect him to have a monster or at least something like TT+, AQs+. UTG on the other hand is a VERY tight (10/7 over 500 hands) reg. Since he raises from UTG (although we do not gain any additional information about him preflop as he doesn't have the option of 5-betting) I do expect him to be pretty strong here as well.

Flop is very interesting as well. I actually wonder what your equity is on this flop vs. rather tight ranges, so let's see what equilator says.

http://www.PokerStrategy.com
Operation completed... 395.514 games processed in 0 seconds.

Board: Ah Kh Js
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 19,259% 18,421% 1,963% 79,617% TT+, AQs+, AKo
Player 2: 61,482% 61,196% 0,859% 37,946% KsKd
Player 3: 19,259% 18,421% 1,963% 79,617% TT+, AQs+, AKo

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http://www.PokerStrategy.com
Operation completed... 698.922 games processed in 0 seconds.

Board: Ah Kh Js
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 16,189% 14,514% 3,638% 81,848% TT+, AQs+, AQo+
Player 2: 67,623% 67,334% 0,867% 31,799% KsKd
Player 3: 16,189% 14,514% 3,638% 81,848% TT+, AQs+, AQo+

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QT is pretty unlikely IMO so I did not include it in the ranges. It doesn't really matter if we include AQo or not, we are still a big favorite on the flop and the bet is of course a must.

Turn is quite interesting. The 6 of spades is a complete blank and after a raise from the UTG, I am 3-betting it with ease as I am still far ahead of his raising range IMO. BB gets out of the hand and UTG caps. This means that we have to narrow his range down. The only hands that I see him capping with here are AA and AK. Soo, let the equilator do it's job once again... :)

http://www.PokerStrategy.com
Operation completed... 6 games processed in 0 seconds.

Board: Ah Kh Js 6s 2h
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 50,000% 50,000% 0,000% 50,000% AA, AKs, AKo
Player 2: 50,000% 50,000% 0,000% 50,000% KsKd

Well, we have 50% EQ. If I understand this correct (which I probably don't so feel free to correct me :)), it does not really matter what we do anymore. We will win 50% of the times and lose 50% of the times. Since we generate more rake if we raise, it is probably better to just call the river bet? We will probably always get 3-bet by AA here (QT is not in our percieved range), I actually doubt it that we will get 3-bet by AK on this river so If I am correct, we actually need 66% EQ to make a profitable raise? I am a little out of shape when it comes to raising EQ etc.


Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Hi!

primzi analysed quite well I would just add that you have to pay attention to UTG flop check which is like WTF in relation to his turnplay. And is almost always a set.

Also he cannot cap turn with just AK as you range is veeeery strong here(considering preflop action).I put him on JJ,,AA

For that reason I would just call on the river due to,like primzi said,you need 66%(actually little less since he will not always 3bet with a better hand...JJ sometimes) to raise here and you only have little more than 50(AK sometimes). Sure when he is not a thinking player and like to overplay I dont mind another raise on the river since AK,AJ get much more likely.


Forgot about JJ so my calculation is wrong there, we do have about 66EQ...

http://www.PokerStrategy.com
Operation canceled... 8.079.806 games processed in 7 seconds.

Board: Ah Kh Js 6s 2h
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 33,302% 33,302% 0,000% 66,698% AA, JJ, AKs, AKo
Player 2: 66,698% 66,698% 0,000% 33,302% KsKd

But as Dawnfall already mentioned, capping AK is less likely than AA and JJ so it's a call against a thinking player and a raise against an overplayer. As for the c/c flop c/r turn with a set line, isn't there an article for plays like that if I remember right?


Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Why would you cap preflop and check flop?!? to give them freecards? to make your range ever stronger and even more unbalanced.If I would even check flop when I cap that would be to play c/f but I can hardly imagine such a situation.


Erm, UTG raised turn... BB capped preflop ;). But ya, BB's play is just pricelessly wtf.


Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Well UTG is obviously bad as there is no hand he can play like this(only 66 with pretty bad flop call),Since once BB(capper) checks the flop UTG has to bet his monsters.

BBs play may be fine with QQ but I would fold it on the turn.