Discussion hand 1: Folding war

    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I'm going to post a few discussion hands. The goal is not to get the right answer, but to think about some interesting situations. Please feel free to post some ideas even if you might change your mind later.

      In this hand from recent play, the CO and SB are in a folding war. They are both short-stacked, and much of their equity comes from limping into the money. The SB and BB are aggressive regulars, and we have no particular reads on the CO and BTN.

      50-30-20 medium stakes SNG, 120/240

      CO: 360 (1.5 bb)
      BTN: 8720
      SB: 160 (0.67 bb)
      BB: 4260

      Preflop:
      CO raises to 360, BTN folds, SB calls 40, BB calls 120.

      Questions:
      1) What range do you give in practice to the CO, SB, and BB?
      2) What will happen to the short stacks if everyone folds to the big blind?
      3) If the CO and BTN had folded, what range should the SB push?
      4) If the CO pushes, and the BTN and SB fold, what range should the BB call?
      5) If the CO pushes, and the BTN folds, what range should the SB call?
      6) How would these change if the CO had 500 chips instead of 360?

      It is hard to get this type of decision right in 1 minute at the table if you haven't thought about it in advance. In fact, getting everything right is tough even with an hour away from the table, but I believe we will discover that the ranges people push in practice are far from the ranges they should push.

      Please post your comments, and answers to some or all of the questions.
  • 12 replies
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      1) CO: pushing 70% (not really sure about this.. Maybe he should shove 100% since there is a bit more dead money in the pot than will be when he'll be the big blind... but maybe he should even shove tighter :) )
      Sb: folding to that shove 100%
      BB: calling that shove 100%
      and if SB picks up AA and can't fold BB should also overcall 100%
      and if CO thinks folding is better. Sb should fold all his range... but if he shoves BB should call 100%


      2) Don't really understand this question lol
      3) SB should fold ATC.. Due to the fact he's more likely getting into the money if he folds...
      4) call with ATC
      5) Fold ATC
      6) the most dramatic change that would happen if CO had 500 chips would be the fact that he wouldn't blind out the next time he pays the SB.. So the current player in SB should probably shove ATC if he gets folded to... And CO should pretty much open fold all his range if he had 500 chips

      And ty for this input pzhon!! I really enjoy reading your quality post regarding sng's!!!
    • Anssi
      Anssi
      Black
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 2,173
      Originally posted by pzhon


      Questions:
      1) What range do you give in practice to the CO, SB, and BB?

      15?%, 1% 100%

      2) What will happen to the short stacks if everyone folds to the big blind?

      Co has to gamble next hand.

      3) If the CO and BTN had folded, what range should the SB push?

      Probably QQ+ or JJ+.

      4) If the CO pushes, and the BTN and SB fold, what range should the BB call?

      100% obv., he gets 1:7

      5) If the CO pushes, and the BTN folds, what range should the SB call?
      KK+ probably.

      6) How would these change if the CO had 500 chips instead of 360?

      sb should get it in with any2.

      It is hard to get this type of decision right in 1 minute at the table if you haven't thought about it in advance. In fact, getting everything right is tough even with an hour away from the table, but I believe we will discover that the ranges people push in practice are far from the ranges they should push.

      Please post your comments, and answers to some or all of the questions.
    • Anssi
      Anssi
      Black
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 2,173
      I don't think CO should shove super loosely here, because sb can always be an idiot and bust by himself. There is also small chance you CO gets walk next hand.
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      1) What range do you give in practice to the CO, SB, and BB?
      CO: 30% SB: 2% BB: 100%
      2) What will happen to the short stacks if everyone folds to the big blind?
      CO is blinded out next - SB leads CO next hand
      3) If the CO and BTN had folded, what range should the SB push?
      4%
      4) If the CO pushes, and the BTN and SB fold, what range should the BB call?
      100%
      5) If the CO pushes, and the BTN folds, what range should the SB call?
      [1%]
      6) How would these change if the CO had 500 chips instead of 360?
      CO is then not next to be blinded out so should push far tighter, SB should loosen up to shoving 100% if folded to
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      Hi pzhon, thanks for the great community contributions so far. looking forward to some great videos and discussions.

      Originally posted by pzhon
      Questions:
      1) What range do you give in practice to the CO, SB, and BB?

      Ill assume you mean, what are their ranges in this specific hand, not what their ranges should be.

      CO (unknown) 6-8% [considering they have been in a folding war, the CO should definitely be folding hands like KQs,KJs,A9o etc.. because he wants to fold into the money)

      SB (obviously not a good reg if hes doing this), I guess he would be on 20-25% praying that the BB will allow him to implicitly collude.

      BB (obviously not a good reg if hes doing this), ATC.



      2) What will happen to the short stacks if everyone folds to the big blind?

      depends when the blinds go up. CO will be in BB next hand, getting > 3:1 against a raiser and will either be all in on the BB or SB (depending on when the blinds go up next).

      if CO doubles, then the original SB is next in line to be blinded out in 3 hands, on his BB.

      3) If the CO and BTN had folded, what range should the SB push?

      id say QQ or KK+, in game i think i would shove QQ but wouldnt be happy about it.

      4) If the CO pushes, and the BTN and SB fold, what range should the BB call?

      ATC, because he is 2nd and cannot force the chip leader to fold. If BB and BTN stacks were reversed i would consider folding a lot from the BB, with a read on the BTN being ICM aware.

      5) If the CO pushes, and the BTN folds, what range should the SB call?

      AA only, because CO has us covered, and BB should be calling ATC.
      not sure if i should add KK/QQ to the range. tbh.

      6) How would these change if the CO had 500 chips instead of 360?

      SB call CO push range AA+
      SB push atc first in due to pot odds and being blinded out first.
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      my ranges would change dramatically depending on my reads on CO/SB.

      if SB is a good regular, he will know CO is being blinded out first. This means my range as the CO would be anything with some sort of value (because of pot odds), probably around 50%. And i would not shove. I would limp as the CO in this situation. That way, if the SB gets into the pot like he has done here we can safely fold if he somehow spews into the pot before us.

      if SB is a fish or bad reg, i will tighten up my CO range significantly, hoping that SB spew shoves something like Ax into the BB because he 'cant ever fold an ace bvb'. My CO range in this situation would be closer to 10%.

      my SB range if CO shoves or limps, is AA only

      my SB range is CO folds is AA only

      my BTN range is ATC (obv).

      my BB call.CO range is ATC, my BB call.SB range is ATC, my BB call.BTN range is JJ/QQ+ (depending on my read on BTN, how much we play together, whether i feel spitey, whether I want meta-game etc...)
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      I definitely do not think the CO should be super loose here, considering the closeness of the two ss, if the CO wakes up with a decent hand next BB and doubles, he is pretty safe (relative to the SB). But getting 2:1 from the CO, as well as blinding out first, should mean we cant fold much. I think 50% is a good CO range against solid opponents.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I want to add yet more questions to consider, but I think this will bring us closer to understanding this complicated problem.

      A critical part of this problem is to analyze hitting the blinds. If hitting the blinds is very close to busting out, then the CO should push widely. If hitting the blinds is not that bad, then the CO should push with a tight range. If hitting the blinds is very bad for the CO, it must be good for the SB, and then the SB should open very tightly if the CO and BTN fold. But if it's not so bad for the CO, then the SB should be willing to call all-in with many more hands after the CO and BTN fold. If the SB will call all-in with more hands, then the CO should not push as many hands.

      To investigate the cost of hitting the blinds, suppose after two hands, we hit the following situation, which I'll call Hypothetical A:

      CO (formerly 160): 40
      BTN: 4260
      SB (formerly 360): 120 all-in
      BB (big stack): 9080

      In this situation, who would you like to be, the CO or the SB? Who is more likely to make the money? I think it's clear that the CO is in a better situation since he can simply fold and hope that the SB will be knocked out. However, there is a good chance the SB will survive, and then the CO will be in bad shape, forced to try to win two showdowns in a row. The chance that the SB will survive is at least 1/3, and I believe it should be over 40% but not more than 45%. The Nash calculator suggests that the CO's equity is 11.52% of the prize pool, while the SB's equity is 9.14%, and I think the inaccuracies in the ICM mean that the CO is in slightly worse shape.

      So, take it back one step, and suppose everyone folded to the big blind, and the original CO has to post 2/3 of his stack in the big blind. Hypothetical B:

      CO: 8720
      BTN (formerly 160): 40
      SB: 4380
      BB: 360

      Who would you rather be, the BB or the BTN? The BB has the option of calling whichever big stack raises here, or folding to reach Hypothetical A, posting the small blind all-in. The BB is not forced to call, despite getting great chip odds. If he is in decent shape against the raiser's range, then calling is better than Hypothetical A.

      I think the BB and BTN have similar equities in Hypothetical B. (Unfortunately, the Nash calculator is unreliable here because the BB will post all-in next hand if he folds this one.) This suggests that hitting the blinds is not as bad as most serious players assume.
    • NamenIos
      NamenIos
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2007 Posts: 1,009
      1) Bu overcalling Range 100%, his stack is big enough that he practiacally play his chip equity and hes getting the right odds for anytwo. The other ranges are a bit tricky as regs are at least at the low stakes (20bucks) differ very much here allthough they shouldnt. Normally i see CO pushing like 30% and sb calling to wide like 5% id guess.

      first edit: according to my calcs the sb is about right to call 5%. The points less than 3 made are obv really important for what to push in the CO i think in a perfect world (nash with a perfect model for the conversion of cev to $ev) the 30% should be about right, though its only a rough guess by myself.
      Other than lessthan3 i would happily fold QQ in the BB if the BU pushes atc to almost atc. With KK i might get it in but im not happy - lets calc. Considering that we have like 66% 2nd place and 33% first (-> 36,3%pp; BU has 43%) we need 84%. Goodby KK and lets metagamecall AA :( actually a spot where folding aa wouldnt be the worst.

      2) if old SB (with 40chips) is not retarded CO has to call almost anytwo in the bb if he just gets pushed into and the old sb folds. He would be auto allin in the sb and the difference of 1bb if he wins the auto allin and 3bb-3.5bb if he wins in the bb. I think he could fold like the bottom ~20% of his range in the bb. Anyway he has to win an allin in the next two hands.

      edit: i now think he could fold more than 20% more like 35%-40%

      3) As his situation and therefore his equity does not really change if he wins he hast to be really tight there. Im not sure if AA are a good push since 18% chance to loose all his equity is worse than the 82% chance of having 1.3bb there.

      4) Same as 1) atc, keeping the bubble alive is senseless if you cant abuse it really. keeping the bubble alive is overrated nevertheless ;)

      5) Thats a bit more tricky than eg 3). If he wins the mp and the CO wins the side pot he has 2bb and the co has <0.9bb. If the bb wins both bust and co gets 20%pp. I think the sb could call loser here like QQ+ def KK+.
      Lets think a bit if QQ is really a good call. I think CO pushes 30%. If we wont call QQ the CO would win in 61% of the cases and we are f#?! ;) (i consider us with no equity left there) if we call we win the main pot in 59% and and in 25% the Co has sth left and in 15% we are itm. But in 41% we bust - considering that were practically busto if co wins in 60% a call is clearly better. So we could almost call everything wich what we have like 41+% chip ev i would guess. That would be 88+ AQo+ ATs.

      6) CO can fold way more (like at least 90% i would think even more) as he wont be allin in the next two hand and has therefore win a showdown to get itm. SB situation would be way worse and has to call atc if its folded to him.

      In an hour or so i will read all the other opinions and will edit my post with new comments to that. I like to analyze it at first without beeing biased by others, so i can find my leaks better.
      ok i did the edit but my thoughts are to fresh, maybe tomorrow ill think of sth more.
    • hacacare
      hacacare
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 2,939
      Glad to see you pzhon at PS.com!

      Originally posted by pzhon
      1) What range do you give in practice to the CO, SB, and BB?

      CO range: Wow, I've just checked, your Explorer says, CO needs 86,8% equity if BB will call for sure.

      BB: ATC.



      2) What will happen to the short stacks if everyone folds to the big blind?
      and 3) If the CO and BTN had folded, what range should the SB push?

      SB range: If I'm not wrong SB needs 20% equity here if CO and BU folds to shove. But we should consider that doubling up does not help much (gives only one + round if other small stack does not bust out), and 360 stack has some chance busting out in next two hands (he has around 50% chance in next two rounds each for surviving if the two stacks do not collaborate - maybe thats 50% is too much, CO will survive around 50% in next two hands). I have no idea, maybe 55+ A9o A7s+ KTs+ KJo+ QJs+ range is not too tight for SB. He will probably be in better situation than the other shorty in next hands.



      4) If the CO pushes, and the BTN and SB fold, what range should the BB call?

      ATC, needs 14% equity



      5) If the CO pushes, and the BTN folds, what range should the SB call?

      AA?



      6) How would these change if the CO had 500 chips instead of 360?

      SB should push much more

      Hypothetical A: SB has 50% chance for surviving next three hands (random vs random), CO has a little bit more, he can cash in this hand in 50% and has also some chance surviving the next two. CO is probably better to be now.

      Hypothetical B: BB would need 71% for calling SB push, but considering that he will be allin next hand, probably he should call wider than the suggested 99+, and call shoves with more than 60% equity (14% of hands (55+ A9o A7s+ KTs+ KJo+ QJs+) vs random). So he has 14% chance for 60% surviving this hand (8%, he can choose) and maybe 50% in the next. Well, maybe BTN is still in better situation.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I'll give some of my thoughts. These should not be viewed as the answers.

      1) What range do you give in practice to the CO, SB, and BB?

      This is a descriptive rather than normative question. It is not asking what people should do, but what they actually do in practice.

      I think the CO is pushing about 40%, the SB 10%, and the BB 98%, but not necessarily the top 40%, 10%, and 98%. Some players will push 80% from the CO, and others will push 20%. If the weighted average is 40%, the range is a little weaker than a top 40% range.

      2) What will happen to the short stacks if everyone folds to the big blind?

      This is a critical question.

      The CO is in extreme danger of blinding off, while this hand's SB can force him to win a showdown or bust out. If the CO wins one showdown, though, the SB will have to win two showdowns in a row.

      I think there is a strong tendency for players to exaggerate how bad the CO's situation would be. I believe the CO would only be in slightly worse shape than the SB. The CO should cash well over 40% of the time. I think many players assume the CO would be in much worse shape.

      Maybe it is more frustrating to post a blind all-in and bust out than to push all-in and get called. You feel powerless instead of in control. However, your bankroll will not notice the difference. If your goal is to win money, you should not pay money to tend to bust out the second way instead of the first.

      3) If the CO and BTN had folded, what range should the SB push?

      Since folding does not come close to guaranteeing making the money, the SB does not need to be an overwhelming favorite over a random hand to call all-in. It is more valuable to double up to 320 chips than to have 40 chips. One reason is that if the CO folds the big blind, the SB can make sure it is a 3-way pot when the CO is all-in in the big blind which greatly increases the chance of knocking out the CO. Another is that if the CO survives, it is much easier for the SB to survive hitting the blinds again with 1.33 bb than with 0.17 bb.

      A trick we can use to make the Nash Calculator helpful is to change the blinds to 120/360 and advance them one spot. Then look at the EQpost calculated by the Nash Calculator. This forces the Nash calculator to see that the CO will be all-in.

      If the SB folds, the Nash calculator suggests an equity of 10.99% of the prize pool.

      If the SB calls and wins, the Nash calculator suggests an equity of 14.76%.

      That means the SB should call with 10.99/14.76 = 74.46% equity against a random hand, or TT+.

      Actually, the SB should get all-in a bit more frequently, since the big stack should shove often, and the BB can almost never call. That means the SB can call to end up with 480 chips instead of calling to get 320. That would give a different fraction, 11.00/16.42 = 66.99% equity against the big stack's range.

      4) If the CO pushes, and the BTN and SB fold, what range should the BB call?

      The medium stack is not that risk-averse. Beyond what the ICM says, the second stack would usually like to end the bubble to stop giving up so many blinds to the big stack. If you put the CO on a range wide enough to include AK, then the BB can call ATC getting 6:1. There are times to fold when you are getting 6:1 odds, but this is not one of them.

      5) If the CO pushes, and the BTN folds, what range should the SB call?

      The SB should expect the BB to overcall very often. Therefore, if the SB calls, he needs to win the main pot or else bubble out. The CO can lose and not bubble out, either by winning the side pot to stay alive, or by placing third if the BB wins. This is a huge disadvantage for the SB, and it means the SB needs a large amount of equity to call.

      If we put the CO on a 40% range, then the CO is about a 60:40 favorite over the big blind. Folding is worth about 20% when the CO busts out, and about 1% if the CO wins, for an average just under 9% of the prize pool.

      Calling and winning the main pot is worth about 16% of the prize pool. So, you need about 9/16 ~ 56% equity in the 3-way pot to call. Only QQ+ has that much. Oddly, if we tighten the CO's range, then we can't count on the BB to beat the CO as often and a hand like TT may become a call.

      6) How would these change if the CO had 500 chips instead of 360?

      If the CO had 500 chips, then pushing would show a lot more strength since the alternative of hitting the blinds would be better. The SB would not need as much equity to complete, but would still need a lot of equity to call a CO shove.
    • maniac
      maniac
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2006 Posts: 6,545
      how do you fix that post and the others that often? *g* .p