Discussion hand 3: 50/100 bubble

    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Here is another hand for discussion. Again, the goal is not to get the right answer, but to think about some interesting situations. Please feel free to post some ideas even if you might change your mind later.

      Medium stakes 50-30-20 SNG bubble, blinds 50/100

      CO: 1765 (17.5 bb), unknown
      BTN: 6200 (62 bb), aggressive reg
      SB: 4285 (43 bb), aggressive reg
      BB: 1250 (12.5 bb), tight so far

      Preflop: CO raises to 350, BTN 3-bets to 800, BB 4-bets to 1250 all-in, CO raises to 1765 all-in, BTN calls 865.

      This was from a regular tournament rather than a turbo, so the blinds tend to be smaller when you reach the bubble. It is still unusual to reach the bubble when the blinds are 50/100, but I'm not sure how the bubble was reached so quickly.

      Questions:
      1) After each action, which range would you give the raiser?
      2) The CO paused for a long time before shoving. Do you read this pause as relative weakness or strength?
      3) Suppose you are in the BB, and you face a raise and reraise. Suppose you are sure that if you push, the CO will fold (unlike in the actual hand) and the BTN will call. How much equity do you need against the BTN's range to make pushing better than folding?
      4) Suppose you are in the CO, you raise, and you face the 3-bet and 4-bet. Suppose you feel you have no folding equity against the BTN if you push. How much equity do you need in the main pot and side pot to make pushing better than folding?
      5) How do you interpret the CO's raise to 350 instead of 300 or 250?
  • 7 replies
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      I guess u'd need like 44% equity as the bb against the buttons range...

      My first thought is that the 350 raise doesn't mean anything that we can use to narrow his range, the 800 3bet is never a bluff with these stacks, so it must mean 99+, AQo+ and the SB shove means JJ-QQ+. when CO calls since he's unknown he can have anything, but for it to be a profitable call he'd need KK+, maybe actually only AA.
    • TeddyTheKiller
      TeddyTheKiller
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 5,175
      1: I'd probably give an Unknown (this means he didnt do anything too stupid yet and wasnt particulary loose imo) a Range of like AJ+ and 77+ for opening 3,5x.
      Now BTN might be thinking diferent or not thinking at all and might be reraising sth like suited connectors and some small pocket pairs to abuse the Bubbel. Nevertheless if he knows what hes doing he should have pretty much Nuts only as in sth like JJ+ AK.
      Now BB comes in for the ride, I give him a Range of QQ+ at least but maybe JJ and AK as well, just don't see many people fold that kind of stuff, he should be a lot tighter imo and just stick it in with KK+.
      2: There probably is a tendency towards relative weakness.
      3: thats for the mathematicians to find out, however I'd suspect you wouldn't need too much Equity, probably around 45% but this is just of the top of my head.
      4: no Idea, shouldnt need a huge amount of Equity tho, cause the shorty is all in.
      5: I just suspect he won't be folding quite as much as if he was making it 300.
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      Originally posted by pzhon
      Questions:
      1) After each action, which range would you give the raiser?

      CO open - 15%
      BTN 3bet - 15%
      BB shove - 6%
      CO call - 6%
      BTN call - 3%

      2) The CO paused for a long time before shoving. Do you read this pause as relative weakness or strength?

      weakness in general.

      3) Suppose you are in the BB, and you face a raise and reraise. Suppose you are sure that if you push, the CO will fold (unlike in the actual hand) and the BTN will call. How much equity do you need against the BTN's range to make pushing better than folding?

      I used your fantastic ICM Explorer! (hopefully i did it correctly) i have

      BB - Equity needed: 57.48%

      4) Suppose you are in the CO, you raise, and you face the 3-bet and 4-bet. Suppose you feel you have no folding equity against the BTN if you push. How much equity do you need in the main pot and side pot to make pushing better than folding?

      I have CO - Equity needed: 35.98%

      not sure how to do the side pot?

      5) How do you interpret the CO's raise to 350 instead of 300 or 250?

      strength! i find players willing to fold will often raise smaller so they dont feel committed. Sometimes they will raise smaller to induce. But in general I think you have less fold-equity against large raises as opposed to smaller raises with unknowns.
    • goldchess
      goldchess
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 641
      Originally posted by TeddyTheKiller

      Now BTN might be thinking diferent or not thinking at all and might be reraising sth like suited connectors and some small pocket pairs to abuse the Bubbel. Nevertheless if he knows what hes doing he should have pretty much Nuts only as in sth like JJ+ AK.
      Why does the button need to super tight here? :f_confused:

      I would 3-bet a ton of hands here because of the bubble situation.
    • ACi0coiu
      ACi0coiu
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 3,517
      1. CO raise: I think his range is 13-14%
      BTN 3-bet: Being more agresive I think he has a looser range, but for a 3-bet he must tighten up a little bit, so i think his range might be 19%.
      BB 4-bet: Being a tight player, I think he'll push in this situation only with QQ+
      CO shove: Here he must shove more tight, like 9%.
      BTN call: I don't think his range would change, as he only must call and for him I don't think it's a taugh call.

      2. I think it's a weakness sign and he hasn't got a top pair in his hand, probably has an AQo+, AJs+, 88-TT.

      3. The BB range is in this case 18%, because he still faces a 3-bet from BTN, which suggest a pretty strong hand and he will not fold to BBs push.

      4.The equity needed is QQ+.

      5. This bet suggest that he has something like AK, AQ, or top pairs, although with top pair(QQ+) his bet would've been 300. With smaller pairs 88-JJ I think he might go all in, same thing with AJ, ATs, KJ+
    • BalticCrew
      BalticCrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 118
      Originally posted by pzhon


      Medium stakes 50-30-20 SNG bubble, blinds 50/100

      CO: 1765 (17.5 bb), unknown
      BTN: 6200 (62 bb), aggressive reg
      SB: 4285 (43 bb), aggressive reg
      BB: 1250 (12.5 bb), tight so far

      Preflop: CO raises to 350, BTN 3-bets to 800, BB 4-bets to 1250 all-in, CO raises to 1765 all-in, BTN calls 865.

      This was from a regular tournament rather than a turbo, so the blinds tend to be smaller when you reach the bubble. It is still unusual to reach the bubble when the blinds are 50/100, but I'm not sure how the bubble was reached so quickly.

      Questions:
      1) After each action, which range would you give the raiser?
      2) The CO paused for a long time before shoving. Do you read this pause as relative weakness or strength?
      3) Suppose you are in the BB, and you face a raise and reraise. Suppose you are sure that if you push, the CO will fold (unlike in the actual hand) and the BTN will call. How much equity do you need against the BTN's range to make pushing better than folding?
      4) Suppose you are in the CO, you raise, and you face the 3-bet and 4-bet. Suppose you feel you have no folding equity against the BTN if you push. How much equity do you need in the main pot and side pot to make pushing better than folding?
      5) How do you interpret the CO's raise to 350 instead of 300 or 250?
      1) CO - I guess it's a normal SnG player who was quite tight in the early stage and is just realizing that he has reached the bubble and wants to loosen up his range and make a steal to earn some chips. That's why I would give him a normal steal range. I don't know much about the right percentages but I guess A8o+, 55+, KTs+ something like this...
      BTN - he is just an aggressive player who wants to earn many many chips that's why I would probably give him the same range as the CO, because the button maybe thinks that the CO was quite passive a long time that he will fold too often.
      BB - he's facing a three bet so his range is quite tighter. I think it's not relevant that he's an aggressive reg because he has to face the facts of a raise and a three bet that's why I would give him QQ+, AKo, AKs
      back to CO - there was a lot of action in front, so KK+
      BTN - he gets great odds so he calls :P

      2) As I said, I think he played the early stage quite tight and just realizes that he has to accumulate chips. I would see it as a sign of strength rather than weakness. He knows the theory - no point of weakness for me.

      3) more than 50% I guess ;) If I win more than 50% of the cases it's profitable? or am I wrong?

      4) I think I have to be ahead of the BTN and BB to stay in the tournament. so KK+

      5) That's an interessting point =)
      I guess that is the only sign of weakness in his play. I guess he makes a bigger bet to not get called and to symbolize strength but by doing this he invests too much money in the pot. On the other hand he could expolit the BTN. If he has watched the BTN closely, he will have found out that he's super aggressive and that's why the CO bets bigger to commit (shove) more easily (no so big overbet). A lot of possibilities.

      I hope I haven't confused you all ;)
      Baltic
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I'll address a few parts of this.

      The reraise to 800 by the BTN is interesting, and I think it is a reasonable play to make with much of his range. This does not risk too much if the second stack shoves, but it asks the CO whether he wants to play for his whole stack or not, and I think he has some folding equity (but see #5).

      The chip leader should consider many resteals on the bubble. In some situations, the chip leader does not need a strong hand to resteal.

      2) I read the CO's pause as weakness. He could be trying to think about whether to raise all-in or flat-call with AA, but I think players tend to act faster on that decision than on whether to fold.

      3) If the BB can get all-in against the BTN, the BB will get 3:2 odds. However, as one of two nearly equal short stacks, he would need 57.5% equity against the BTN's range if he knew the CO would always fold.

      Both the possibility that the CO will overcall and that the CO will call if the BB folds increase the amount of equity needed against the CO's range. It is worth a lot to the BB that the CO will sometimes get knocked out by the big stack.

      4) This is complicated, and I'll address it later.

      5) I see this type of overly large raise a lot. I think some players use it as a signal that they are not planning to fold to a reasteal.