Break even, beating or crushing limit?

  • 20 replies
    • Wurble
      Wurble
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      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by Dublimax
      Hi folks,

      Can any of you give me some rough indications regarding the Big Blinds/100 hands expected when one beats a limit and when ones crushes a limit.

      Thanks,
      Beating a limit is any winrate above zero over a large number of hands... Crushing a limit once past nl2\nl5 would be anything over 10bb\100 hands imo but there are quite a few who achieve more than that.
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
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      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Originally posted by Wurble
      Beating a limit is any winrate above zero over a large number of hands...
      Fair comment.

      Let me rephrase my question: What is the Big Blinds/100 hands expected when comfortably beating a limit and also crushing it.

      Is it also fair to take into account the All in EV rather than the real winnings when looking at this?

      Thanks
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
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      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      I would say this all stuff is relative. Crushing NL2 may be 15BB/100h, crushing NL 1K may be 2BB/100h. I would rather go for $/hour than BB/100h!

      For some clarification, check http://www.pokertableratings.com leaderboards and see the average winnings on different blind levels.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      BB=Big Bet, bb=big blind as far as I know. And your winnings thorough PT (or HEM) are in BB/100 hands. This means 15BB/100 = 30 big blinds/100 hands which I doubt you can really do on any limit in the long run. As said, beating a limit is anywhere >0BB/100 in a solid sample size. Crushing would be >8BB/100, again over a good sample size imo.

      @andrei: you can't really measure your winrate in $/hour because at half the stack at the same BB/100 you get half $/hour. BB/100 is standard on all limits so it's the best way to measure your winrate. Not to mention the difference between FR, SH, FR Rush and SH Rush. Hourly winrates differ here too because of the amount of hands you play.
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
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      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Hi guys,

      Thanks for your comments.
      We are talking about SH NL 20 - SH NL 50 and in bb/100 hands (which is as said Emanuel big blinds not Big Bet).

      Ok so here is something i would like to know:

      [0-2bb/100]: Just above Break even, slighlty winning but not much edge on anybody.
      [2-4bb/100]: winning money from fish mostly but not quite there vs reg
      [4-6bb/100]: winning money vs fish and a bit vs reg
      [6-8bb/100]: winning money vs fish and reg - just wait for your BR to be high enough and go uo the limit.
      [above 8bb/100]: you are the best at the table what are you still doing here??

      And again is it fair to consider All In EV rather than actual winnings?

      Thanks
    • Wurble
      Wurble
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      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      What you've said above sounds about right for the limits you mentioned I guess.

      I don't know what you're asking about all in ev really - This is something that, although it looks good on a graph doesn't really mean a great deal. Theoretically you could be above\below all in ev for 100k+ hands... Say you're all in with QQ - You know this beats most of villains hand range so it's good, he calls with KK... you suck out when you flop a set. You're now running above ev but it doesn't actually mean anything about your play because you still made the right move.
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
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      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Originally posted by Wurble
      You're now running above ev but it doesn't actually mean anything about your play because you still made the right move.
      Agreed.

      However if you are running below All In EV it just means that you are unlucky since it means that you had the best hand when going AI.
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
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      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,809
      allin ev says very little about how well you're running, especially in deep stack games where you rarely go allin.
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
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      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Originally posted by redskwerl
      especially in deep stack games where you rarely go allin.
      EV all in also takes into account when villain is AI which could be quite often since there is always a few SS on the table.

      I think EV All in is roughly a representation of where you would stand is you were winning 50% all your 50/50, winning 80/10 all your 80% and so on.

      Over a (very) big sample size I think that your winnings are meant to be like your All In EV.
    • gadget51
      gadget51
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      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      I don't bother with AI ev or $ per hr. My own rates are 11.07bb/100 for NL5 FR and 10.4bb/100 for NL5 6max over 196000 ish so far.
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
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      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      I'm only paying attention to it because i'm running well below All In EV.

      So I have approx 2bb/100 on NL20 SH where my All In EV stands at 8.5bb/100 over 7000 hands.

      So basically I think i'm beating comfortably the limit (looking at AI EV) but only slightly winning in reality.

      That is why I was asking if one should look at AI EV instead of actual winnings.

      Thanks
    • Wurble
      Wurble
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      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by Dublimax
      I'm only paying attention to it because i'm running well below All In EV.

      So I have approx 2bb/100 on NL20 SH where my All In EV stands at 8.5bb/100 over 7000 hands.

      So basically I think i'm beating comfortably the limit (looking at AI EV) but only slightly winning in reality.

      That is why I was asking if one should look at AI EV instead of actual winnings.

      Thanks
      I know how you feel - I was $45 below all in EV over like 6k hands at nl5 SH and I felt like the world was over... but counting what you should've won in to your winrate doesn't change anything. My personal preference is to just not bother looking at all in ev anymore - If you run below ev you feel like the world is against you and if you run above ev you feel like you're only winning due to suckouts! You can't win by basing your thoughts around a theoretical principle.

      Just concentrate on your game and your all in ev should naturally balance out toward what it 'should' be but if it doesn't don't worry about it. Your winrate is your winrate and if you want to improve it you need to fix leaks regardless of all in EV.

      Just my two cents :)
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
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      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      To be honest I wouldn't really care about All In EV if only it didn't affect my BR that much.
      I'm back playing NL20 because i'm 700 € below EV and I can not afford to play NL50 anymore.
      And since I can not put a massive volume (job, girlfriend, social life etc...) it takes ages to build up my BR...
    • Wurble
      Wurble
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      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by Dublimax
      To be honest I wouldn't really care about All In EV if only it didn't affect my BR that much.
      I'm back playing NL20 because i'm 700 € below EV and I can not afford to play NL50 anymore.
      And since I can not put a massive volume (job, girlfriend, social life etc...) it takes ages to build up my BR...
      I know the feeling.. although have never got to nl50, mainly through tilting badly at the first real down swing.

      The good thing is that if you're running so bad, eventually that variance must swing the other way... How many hands have you played at nl50?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Originally posted by Wurble
      The good thing is that if you're running so bad, eventually that variance must swing the other way...
      False statement. Variance is random. It doesn't swing the other way eventually! You will stop running bad at some point but that doesn't mean you'll start running well.
    • Wurble
      Wurble
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      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Originally posted by Wurble
      The good thing is that if you're running so bad, eventually that variance must swing the other way...
      False statement. Variance is random. It doesn't swing the other way eventually! You will stop running bad at some point but that doesn't mean you'll start running well.
      Is this not a contradiction?

      The variance isn't random, it's all in the numbers. If you're a 70% favourite when you ship it and over 1000 occurrences you find that you've only won 60% of the time, that will swing back the other way at some point so that you've won 70% otherwise it wouldn't be possible to talk about a +ev play being the right thing to do.

      If the variance is random as you suggest then there is never a good time to get your money in and we're all just gamblers in need of some help.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      There is a good time to get your money in, but there isn't a perfect time only if you hold the absolute nuts. You can loose a whole year AA vs KK AI preflop, there is no telling how long the long run actually is. And by random I mean that if you lose 25 consecutive "coinflips" it doesn't mean that if "the downswing" is over you'll win the next 25 to even things out. Saying that it'll just swing back is like expecting an upswing after a downswing. You can say that it will even out, like you suggested in your last post, but you can't tell how, in what time, how many hands and so on. By random I don't mean every hand is just a flip, I'm just saying that you can't predict future events based on passed ones like hitting draws, sets, getting sucked out on. For example, if you have not hit your FD 4 times, you don't have a bigger chance of hitting it now. The odds are still the same. Now do you understand what I am talking about? :)
    • Wurble
      Wurble
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      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      I think there is just a misunderstanding here - I fully understand what you're saying.. Each situation is independant of all others so yeah, for sure you can never tell what is going to happen from one time to the next.

      Surely though, the more hands you play, the closer to the true percentage each situation will become? If not then I'm giving up lol

      This all I meant when I said it would swing the other way, the percentages would balance out and the more hands you play, the more likely it is that your 'true' edge will become clear...
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
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      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Originally posted by gadget51
      I don't bother with AI ev or $ per hr. My own rates are 11.07bb/100 for NL5 FR and 10.4bb/100 for NL5 6max over 196000 ish so far.
      Not to sound offensive or anything, just curious. But why have you been playing NL5 for 196,000 hands beating it at that high of a winrate?

      Currently beating NL5 for 11.90bb/100 over 11k hands :)
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