[Closed] Discussion hand 4: Bubble microstack

1. Even given that he is conservative, and that he most likely doesn't want to double up the BB with crap, he should push at least all pairs, Ax, broadways, most suited kings and the higher suited queens.

I'd say anyway between 25-30%

2. In practice, i think many (bad) unknowns will find it hard to fold their top 5%. Which is AQ+,99+. And i guess they will often assume the BB always calls too.

3. KK+

4. Something like 76% according to ICM Explorer

5. QQ+

if SB's range is KK+, BB should only call AA ;).

In this situation, I think there is a large difference between what people will actually do in the small blind and what they should do. In part, some players will assume that the big blind has to overcall due to pot odds, when in fact that would be a huge mistake with most hands. So, question 3 was which hands the big blind should play in practice, against typical imperfect opponents.

I think in this particular spot, not too many will make the "huge" mistake of calling with the raggier aces or the lower pairs, although calling with AQ/AK is in itself a big mistake.

It's just too obvious that they have to fold here

I guess i should revise my analysis after this hand at the $6.50. Although you did say midstakes

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $500(BB) Replayer
SB ($4,141)
BB ($1,300)
Hero ($5,590)
BTN ($2,469)

Dealt to Hero Q♣ Q♠

Hero raises to $5,590 (AI), fold, SB calls $3,891 (AI), fold

FLOP ($8,782) 4♠ 8♥ 7♦

TURN ($8,782) 4♠ 8♥ 7♦ 4♣

RIVER ($8,782) 4♠ 8♥ 7♦ 4♣ 6♣

SB shows T♦ A♣
(Pre 29%, Flop 16.8%, Turn 6.8%)

Hero shows Q♣ Q♠
(Pre 71%, Flop 83.2%, Turn 93.2%)

Hero wins $8,782

Villain should know that i'm not pushing ATC here, i would have pushed ATC in the previous hand. I'm not here because i have no FEQ against the BB. I was however abusing the bubble pretty hard in this game.

1) What range do you give the BTN for pushing?

Button should probably not push wider than 50%. If I am not wrong, the model based on ICM never suggests moves that cause loss in chips (or at least you told that once if I am not wrong). Since he has practically no fold equity on BB, he shouldn't push wider.

2) What range do you give the SB for calling in practice?

He should call only with KK+, but in practice there are some calls with hands like AK, JJ
(Nash suggests JJ+ with 38% BU pushing range, but ICMExplorer says SB needs 75,6% equity to call? )

3) With what range should the big blind overcall?

aces

4) How much equity does the small blind need against the BTN's range to call?

75,6%

5) Given your answers to 1 and 4, with what range should the SB call?

KK+

Originally posted by elhh82
Villain should know that i'm not pushing ATC here... I'm not here because i have no FEQ against the BB.

Originally posted by hacacare
the model based on ICM never suggests moves that cause loss in chips

This is a very important observation to make. I see some calls which would be wrong against an ATC range, but also many calls which would only make sense if you put the big stack on ATC, which should not be the case here.

The BTN is slightly risk-averse, and should pass up on some pushes with hands which would gain chips. Note that because the SB should rarely call, the 250 chip small blind is almost dead money, so pushing with less than 50% equity against a random hand may gain a few chips. However, in the Nash equilibrium, the BTN pushes only hands which have at least about 53.5% equity against a random hand.

Originally posted by elhh82
4. Something like 76% according to ICM Explorer

ICM Explorer was not designed to handle multiway situations. ICM Explorer assumes that the BB will never overcall, which is close enough to correct with expert play from the big blind. However, ICM Explorer also assumes that if the SB folds, then the BB will fold. However, if the SB folds, the BB will call.

If the BB's calls hurts the SB, then ICM Explorer will overvalue folding, and will say that the SB needs too much equity to call. If the BB's calls help the SB, the reverse happens.

In most SNG situations, you want to see your opponents collide. This is an exception, at least according to the ICM. The ICM says that if the BB folds and is crippled to 78 chips, this is almost as good for the SB as if the BB is eliminated. Since the SB would strongly prefer to see the BB eliminated over seeing the BB double up, it is bad for the SB that the BB will call, and this means the SB does not need as much equity to call as ICM Explorer says.

In SNG Wizard, if you expand the winner in Analysis Details, you can get the ICM estimates for the outcomes, and SNG Wizard also reports the equity for folding. If you give the BTN a 30% range, then folding averages about 24.81% of the prize pool. Losing (with no overcall) is worth 0%. Calling and winning (with no overcall) is worth 35.3%. So, it appears that the SB only needs about 24.81/35.3 = 70.3% equity against the BTN's range to call. Against a top 30% range, QQ would be a close decision and JJ would be a clear fold. Against a top 50% range, JJ would have enough equity to call.

In the actual hand, the SB called with a good hand which didn't have close to enough equity even against a random hand, which we have seen would not make sense for the BTN.