[Closed] overbetting strategies

overbetting is good vs opponents who cautiously call you down, i'll give you an example,

i was on the BB w/99, called a raised from the btn who i know to be a thinking decent player,
flop 97K
I donk into him so if he has an overpair he's likely to raise, but he just called.
Turn A. I lead strong again, and yet again he just called. I wasn't sure what to put him on, but some kx ax type of hand, perhaps floated me with an ace.
River J.

The jack on the river pretty much completes lots of 2pair type of hands, JK AJ and if i just bet here the tag would call me wether i bet 2/3 or overbet it.
So i did overbet, and he called with 2 pair, because they don't raise for value and obviously will call because it looks bluffy.

You just have to take a line which you can represent something believable which would overbet. It's a hard thing to just put into words.

Twicet briefly talks about overbets, think it's in the leakbuster 1 video.

But I guess most overbet situation are pretty obvious/similar

Board types -
Ie board where you 2 barreled and got the feeling you were getting floated and the turn or river is perfect for you ie A or K that hits his floating range (assuming you have trips, non obvious two pair or better ie with suited connectors, etc)
Backdoor straights and backdoor flushes of course, since tptk/two pair or similar won't be too prone to believe you have something better, but due to the board texture they won't be shipping it

As a bluff -
Obvious flush draw or straight completes, or more risky/prone to work vs. less opponent types, I'd think of something like AJ8J8 board or AJxJx board, where you might make someone fold an ace or dry board like A83 RB where you overbet to make someone fold a PP.

Ideal opponent type : calling station that almost surely has TPTK or similar
I guess that's a no brainer to overbet even on the flop

Would be interested in hearing more opinions. I always feel like I get robbed of value in some hands.

Originally posted by alenstrat
Twicet briefly talks about overbets, think it's in the leakbuster 1 video.

But I guess most overbet situation are pretty obvious/similar

Board types -
Ie board where you 2 barreled and got the feeling you were getting floated and the turn or river is perfect for you ie A or K that hits his floating range (assuming you have trips, non obvious two pair or better ie with suited connectors, etc)
Backdoor straights and backdoor flushes of course, since tptk/two pair or similar won't be too prone to believe you have something better, but due to the board texture they won't be shipping it

As a bluff -
Obvious flush draw or straight completes, or more risky/prone to work vs. less opponent types, I'd think of something like AJ8J8 board or AJxJx board, where you might make someone fold an ace or dry board like A83 RB where you overbet to make someone fold a PP.

Ideal opponent type : calling station that almost surely has TPTK or similar
I guess that's a no brainer to overbet even on the flop

Would be interested in hearing more opinions. I always feel like I get robbed of value in some hands.

The scenario you described means we're overbetting for value vs a fish.

There's also situations in which we want to overbet vs a reg, either as a bluff or for value.
Both scenarios are pretty similar - we try to polarize our perceived range by overbetting.

Bluff:
We do this as a bluff because we want to make it look like we're going for max value.
This works best in spots where we can represent a lot of nuts- or near-to-nuts combinations of hands but we also have a lot of medium strength hands in our range. So the times we're actually sitting there with air we want the opponent to think we're going for max value with the nut-type hands.

Value:
We have a standard balanced range with a decent air-part.
We want the opponent to think we wouldn't overbet medium strength like this so our range only consists of air and nuts - since there was a lot of air in our range and only few nutcombinations he might decide to make a herocall with a medium strength hand.

One lesson from game theory is that you should tend not to overbet if your opponent's range is unlimited. If your opponent will have a strong hand often, then he can fold his weak hands can call with his strong hands, and that punishes overbets too much to try them. If your opponent takes a line (or has a timing tell) which tells you that he rarely has a very strong hand, then overbets are more reasonable.

I rarely make large overbets as a pure bluff. I have had some success getting large overbets for value paid off when there is an obvious second best hand.

Example: (A:spade: K:heart: J:diamond:) T:spade:

I pushed 100 bb into a 10 bb pot with Q:spade: x:spade:, expecting any Q to pay me off. I have 60% equity against someone with just the straight. Some players would only call a smaller bet with a queen, and then another spade or the board pairing might mean I can't get all of the money in.

These tend to happen more often on the river than on the flop or turn, though.

On the flop, I check-raise all-in with some overbets. Pushing is more reasonable when you are out of position because the alternative of trying to play a smaller pot is less appetizing when you have a positional disadvantage. I rarely do this as a pure bluff, but I sometimes do this with a hand like a pair + two card flush draw, which has equity against anything, but whose outs are not clear. Against a set, the outs to trips or two pair are no good, but against a higher flush draw, the pair is good and the flush outs are bad. In theory, these pushes with big draws should be balanced against overbet check-raises with some strong made hands, but in many games that is not necessary.

overbetting river ofc is a strategy that needs lesser discussion since stack to pot ratio is not that great compared to overbetting flop and turn.

e.g. vs a fish on this board, i just wanna get max value out of his draws/pairs/combos, but don't wanna be put to a decision out of position if a bad card lands, so i decided to overbet the flop to setup a shove on the turn. against a fish, he's more incline to call than fold when faced with a marginal situation.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($102)
BB ($19.25)
Hero ($50)
UTG+1 ($52.85)
UTG+2 ($53.40)
MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($53.20)
CO ($47.40)
BTN ($48.65)

Dealt to Hero K:diamond: K:heart:

Hero raises to $2, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $2, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($4.75) 8:heart: 9:heart: J:spade:

Hero bets $10, CO calls $10

TURN ($24.75) 8:heart: 9:heart: J:spade: 8:club:

Hero bets $38 (AI), CO calls $35.40 (AI)

RIVER ($95.55) 8:heart: 9:heart: J:spade: 8:club: 9:spade:

lastly, what should we do when we are faced with an overbet on flop or turn?

Hero shows K:diamond: K:heart:
(Pre 82%, Flop 49.2%, Turn 68.2%)

CO shows T:heart: 6:heart:
(Pre 18%, Flop 50.8%, Turn 31.8%)

Hero wins $92.55

Originally posted by supeyrio
overbetting river ofc is a strategy that needs lesser discussion since stack to pot ratio is not that great compared to overbetting flop and turn.

e.g. vs a fish on this board, i just wanna get max value out of his draws/pairs/combos, but don't wanna be put to a decision out of position if a bad card lands, so i decided to overbet the flop to setup a shove on the turn. against a fish, he's more incline to call than fold when faced with a marginal situation.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($102)
BB ($19.25)
Hero ($50)
UTG+1 ($52.85)
UTG+2 ($53.40)
MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($53.20)
CO ($47.40)
BTN ($48.65)

Dealt to Hero K:diamond: K:heart:

Hero raises to $2, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $2, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($4.75) 8:heart: 9:heart: J:spade:

Hero bets $10, CO calls $10

TURN ($24.75) 8:heart: 9:heart: J:spade: 8:club:

Hero bets $38 (AI), CO calls $35.40 (AI)

RIVER ($95.55) 8:heart: 9:heart: J:spade: 8:club: 9:spade:

lastly, what should we do when we are faced with an overbet on flop or turn?

Hero shows K:diamond: K:heart:
(Pre 82%, Flop 49.2%, Turn 68.2%)

CO shows T:heart: 6:heart:
(Pre 18%, Flop 50.8%, Turn 31.8%)

Hero wins $92.55

interesting application of overbetting!

take notes of the frequency of overbetting ? if its frequent = less credible ? less frequent = fold then.

supeyrio,

Today I've been thinking about these two overbets. Firstly, I'm assuming your opponent is a calling station. If not, then it's a misplay. If your villain is very passive then your equity w/KK wihout K is not as strong as you think, because overbets require much wider calling range. Against villains 8% F calling range you've got 38% unless you believe that he doesn't call with sets, which he shouldn't do here: against the nuts he has a strong redraw, againist combos he's pretty strong.

However, if your villain is not calling w/ sets (he raises), your equity doesn't improve much (by 2% only). Why is that? Sets are not big part of range here (11% only). On the flop 45% of villain's equity has OESD/DBB.

After careful consideration I don't think this is a good approach to this hand. Still, I'm not omniscient- I'm always looking for feedback!

Cheers,
Michal

Well supeyrio mentioned that he's a fish so it's a great play since the board the so draw heavy. Definitely such a play is opponent dependent. In this case it is a nice over bet to set up the shove on turn. There are too many scare cards that he doesn't want to see on the river.