[Closed] Resteal against a limper

Unless i have a note that he is limp folding very often, I will only resteal with much better hands. We should be quite careful with limpers.

Something like 77+ AJ+ seems reasonable.

They love suited JT

I think 44+ A8s+ but only with 10BB or less

If I fold, I lose 1BB, If I push and they fold, I win 1.5BB. If I push and they call, I win 14BB or lose 12 BB. If we assume that they call with a top 10% hand (JTs is just at the bottom of this range) I have about 33% equity with 65s. For pushing and folding to have the same Chip EV, the fold equity F has to satisfy

-1 = 1.5 F + (1-F) (14 x (1/3) - 12 x (2/3))

which gives F just under 50%. If he's limping 25% and calling 10%, he's folding 60% of the time. Since there are still 9 players left, I'm not that risk averse, so I reckon that, at the very least, I can push a lot wider than you're suggesting.

Have I gone wrong somewhere?

Originally posted by jbpatzer
If I fold, I lose 1BB, If I push and they fold, I win 1.5BB. If I push and they call, I win 14BB or lose 12 BB. If we assume that they call with a top 10% hand (JTs is just at the bottom of this range) I have about 33% equity with 65s. For pushing and folding to have the same Chip EV, the fold equity F has to satisfy

-1 = 1.5 F + (1-F) (14 x (1/3) - 12 x (2/3))

which gives F just under 50%. If he's limping 25% and calling 10%, he's folding 60% of the time. Since there are still 9 players left, I'm not that risk averse, so I reckon that, at the very least, I can push a lot wider than you're suggesting.

Have I gone wrong somewhere?

JTs is like 20%, no? I also think you are not giving enough credence to the ICM factors, although risk aversion is relatively low, but the chips are also not worth much at this point.

First image, i gave villain a loose range which sort of seems like that he is playing.

Second image, i used your 25%/10% assumption

Interestingly, in the second case, the push with 656s is very much less bad, but we should still tighten up as compared to the first range..

Hmmmm. Interesting! In case you still have it set up in SnGWiz, how tight does he have to be calling in the second case for 65s to be a push?

6% is breakeven, after that you're profitable pushing ATC

Originally posted by jbpatzer
If I fold, I lose 1BB, If I push and they fold, I win 1.5BB. If I push and they call, I win 14BB or lose 12 BB.

In the BB you can check

In these sort of spots I am quite tight with 13bb, there is still plenty of time until we are desperate. Also the freeplay with a suited connector is very tempting.

My shoving range here might be something like: A7s+, ATo+,66+, KJ+
That's just intuitive though, I'll let you guys work out the maths

That shoving range would be against unknown fish though, we need to tighten up if we know he calls us loose like JTs, but in general in such spots we should have tons of fold equity and pick up the dead money a huge amount of the time.

Hi all,

Originally posted by goldchess
That shoving range would be against unknown fish though, we need to tighten up if we know he calls us loose like JTs, but in general in such spots we should have tons of fold equity and pick up the dead money a huge amount of the time.

This. We have to be more careful if he was "committed" like if he had 6bb or something. But with this stacksize our fold equity is nice. And our equity when called is great too.

Originally posted by goldchess

Originally posted by jbpatzer
If I fold, I lose 1BB, If I push and they fold, I win 1.5BB. If I push and they call, I win 14BB or lose 12 BB.

In the BB you can check

This......is a very good point!

Well, I'm pleased chenny liked my push at least a little bit (btw, epic new signature!). Now that I've managed to churn out a massive 40 of these things (sigh!), I realize that there are probably better spots though. After my super turbos experience, I find that I can exercise huge patience when very shortstacked near the bubble and watch everyone else panic away their chips.

I do not trust the SNG Wizard evaluation of checking. If you check, it appears from my tests that SNG Wizard says you take a fair coinflip for the pot regardless of your hand or your opponent's range. Since you are out of position with a weak hand, checking may be worse than SNG Wizard assumes.

You should not assume that your opponent's limping range is something like the top 25%. If a player is 35/10, then he limps 25%, but the hands from the 65th to 89th percentiles are much weaker than the hands from the 75th to 99th percentiles.

A very popular bad play that many casual players make is to limp, and then call all-in with a mediocre hand like QTo or A5o or 55. You have some folding equity, but you may want a little more equity against hands like this.