Discussion hand 5: Microstack in SB

    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Here is another hand for discussion. Again, the goal is not to get the right answer, but to think about some interesting situations. Please feel free to post some ideas even if you might change your mind later.

      Medium stakes 50-30-20 SNG bubble, blinds 200/400

      CO (unknown): 4960
      BTN (good reg): 4200
      SB (bad casual player, unknown bubble tendencies): 540, 340 after posting
      BB (good reg): 3800

      CO folds, BTN pushes 4200, SB folds, BB calls 3400.

      1) How much equity does the BB need against the BTN's range?
      2) If the SB had called, how much should the BB overcall?
      3) How often should the SB call?
      4) How widely should the BTN push?
      5) What is the correct calling range for the BB?

      The analysis of this hand surprised me, and my range from the BTN would have been far off the Nash range. The players in this hand also might have been confused.
  • 7 replies
    • LgWz
      LgWz
      Black
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 7,641
      1) How much equity does the BB need against the BTN's range?

      I suppose a bit more than 70%.

      2) If the SB had called, how much should the BB overcall?

      Risk aversion drops significantly against BTN's range, so we need way less equity. I think hands like 66, A9, KQs could become good enough, but it obviously depends on how wide we think BTN pushes.

      3) How often should the SB call?

      Pretty much any two? He has almost half his stack posted and isn't anywhere close to the other stacks, so he gets great odds and his risk aversion is very very low.

      4) How widely should the BTN push?

      If he thinks SB is gonna call a lot, he needs to push quite tight, because in case he pushes and SB calls, the BB will be in a good spot to call a bit wider and try to double up through him. BB's risk aversion will become lower with both players all-in because he would only bubble if SB wins main pot and BTN wins side pot. So the risk-reward of pushing a hand like J8o is very bad imo, because you're flipping against an ATC range and you're owned if BB wakes with AJ or something and decides to overcall.

      On the other hand, if SB is capable of folding (I think the "bad casual player" read is not enough to know this) BTN can push wider because BB will be very risk averse more often.

      I don't know how often I'd push in a vacuum, maybe 30%? It all depends on how the SB played so far =p

      5) What is the correct calling range for the BB?

      KK+, maybe adding QQ if BB thinks BTN might not realise his pushing range can't be too wide.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      sry OT, but do you have Skype pzhon?
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Originally posted by LgWz
      1) How much equity does the BB need against the BTN's range?

      I suppose a bit more than 70%.

      2) If the SB had called, how much should the BB overcall?

      Risk aversion drops significantly against BTN's range, so we need way less equity. I think hands like 66, A9, KQs could become good enough, but it obviously depends on how wide we think BTN pushes.

      3) How often should the SB call?

      Pretty much any two? He has almost half his stack posted and isn't anywhere close to the other stacks, so he gets great odds and his risk aversion is very very low.

      4) How widely should the BTN push?

      If he thinks SB is gonna call a lot, he needs to push quite tight, because in case he pushes and SB calls, the BB will be in a good spot to call a bit wider and try to double up through him. BB's risk aversion will become lower with both players all-in because he would only bubble if SB wins main pot and BTN wins side pot. So the risk-reward of pushing a hand like J8o is very bad imo, because you're flipping against an ATC range and you're owned if BB wakes with AJ or something and decides to overcall.

      On the other hand, if SB is capable of folding (I think the "bad casual player" read is not enough to know this) BTN can push wider because BB will be very risk averse more often.

      I don't know how often I'd push in a vacuum, maybe 30%? It all depends on how the SB played so far =p

      5) What is the correct calling range for the BB?

      KK+, maybe adding QQ if BB thinks BTN might not realise his pushing range can't be too wide.
      +1 solid reasoning imo.
    • belgianbeer
      belgianbeer
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 17.05.2008 Posts: 2,181
      before reading the other answers...

      1) How much equity does the BB need against the BTN's range?
      because he is covered and because there is a very smallstack nearby dead...
      I would say... at least 68-70% of equity

      2) If the SB had called, how much should the BB overcall?
      the pot odd increase and our prizepool % in case of win also... I would say maybe between 60% to 65% of equity against BTN

      3) How often should the SB call?
      he is completly dead... here he has a very good pot odd if he win he can come back at 1480 if BB folds. nearby multiplied by 3. 32o have a 32% against ATC. and I think that it is a good occasion to do a EV$- call.

      4) How widely should the BTN push?
      almost 100%. he covers the both stacks. BB will fold a lot (+90%) and SB is dead money so pot odd increase !

      5) What is the correct calling range for the BB?
      if he needs 68-70% I would say : 88+, AKs


      now i'm used to play with ante on PS so maybe my reply is a bit too LAG
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      My initial feeling when I was shown this hand was that the button should push widely. The BB can't correctly call with AKs, and if the SB calls, the BTN gets good pot odds and is not risk-averse. So, I thought the BTN should push something like 70%.

      The Nash calculator (which is far from perfect in these situations) pointed out that the BTN should fear the BB's overcalls. If the SB calls, then the BB is no longer as risk-averse since it takes a big parlay to bubble out. Instead of needing 71% equity against the BTN's range to call, the BB can overcall with about 53% equity. So, if the BTN pushes a wide range, and the SB calls often, then the BB can call often and can punish the BTN, which would make pushing unprofitable. If the SB will fold often, then the BTN can push a wide range.

      The SB should call quite often. If the BB were sure to fold, then the SB could call with 27% equity against the BTN's range. Both the BB's possible calls and overcalls argue for folding, but the SB is still supposed to call quite widely. The Nash calculator says to call with ATC, but I don't think this is correct in practice, and I'm suspicious of calling with the weakest hands in theory.

      Despite the read that the BB was a good reg, he made a pretty bad call with AKs in the actual hand. It's not clear what the button's range was, but he had a top 20% hand this time, and I think he only pushes about 30% in similar situations. AKs only has 65% equity against some 30% ranges, and calling would cost about 20% of a buy-in against that range.
    • PokerAddict36
      PokerAddict36
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2008 Posts: 413
      Hi,

      But if the button was pushing 60 - 70% AKs would be the correct call ?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      No, the big blind needs 71% equity against the button's range to call according to the ICM. Here are the equities of a few hands against one 70% range:

      AQs: 65.5%
      AKo: 65.1%
      AKs: 66.8%
      88: 64.5%
      99: 67.6%
      TT: 71.0%
      JJ: 73.9%
      QQ: 77.2%
      KK: 80.9%
      AA: 84.8%

      So, against that range, the calling range should be TT+. AKs doesn't even have enough equity (only 67.0%) against a 100% range.