[Closed] Nl 25 sh rush bottom set vs nit

Raise the flop.

You're not serious about folding the turn with a full house right?

Set over set happens, obviously, but it's just unlucky, and it's compensated in the long run by the times you have the higher set.

Call on the flop seems fine and then evaluate on the turn how big he is betting, mostly planning calling him down.
I think he would b/f his overpairs and maybe also A high flushdraws to your turn shove, you don´t afraid most cards, so I´d just call and let him bluff on the river if he happens to have some kind of draw or overpair

Originally posted by falcone1983
Raise the flop.

You're not serious about folding the turn with a full house right?

Set over set happens, obviously, but it's just unlucky, and it's compensated in the long run by the times you have the higher set.

Because he is a 9/7 guy yeah I am serious.

Don't know really what is the best play but I am pretty sure that he is playing mostly an overset that way.
If I had something like 400 hands on him and he was donking for the first time I think I was deff folding

My opinion is that he is bluffing in max 10 % cases on the flop, and the nut flush which is like the only flush he is going to have is check raising 100% bec he has the nuts.
As for the overpairs in his range, those are a small percent as well.

This turncard is basically the best possible one for your hand. the only hands you have to worry about now are: 88/55. 85o is not in his range as is so tight.

There are way more combinations of overpairs with and made flushes that he might over/missplay than the one combination of quads and 3 combos of 55 which are ahead of you.

I think calling the flop is fine - and on this turn card, we are just trying to work out how to get as much money from him between now and the River (I don't think we can ever consider folding a fh on a 3flush board for 100bb).

Overall I think calling the turn is best, with the plan of shoving the River if he bets and betting big if he checks, but if you think he is bet/calling his flushes or overpairs on turn then shoving is fine - another may scare him off on the river.

Originally posted by Tim64
This turncard is basically the best possible one for your hand. the only hands you have to worry about now are: 88/55. 85o is not in his range as is so tight.

There are way more combinations of overpairs with and made flushes that he might over/missplay than the one combination of quads and 3 combos of 55 which are ahead of you.

I think calling the flop is fine - and on this turn card, we are just trying to work out how to get as much money from him between now and the River (I don't think we can ever consider folding a fh on a 3flush board for 100bb).

Overall I think calling the turn is best, with the plan of shoving the River if he bets and betting big if he checks, but if you think he is bet/calling his flushes or overpairs on turn then shoving is fine - another may scare him off on the river.

On that turn I am sure that folding is not an option.
On a blank turn I am not sure that calling down is the best option. Anyway I assume that us the best we can do so that we do not appear to weak.

Btw if I had like 600-1k hands on him and the stats were the same is calling down still the best option?

He is calling .75 into 2.25 and getting three to one odds. With his image you can probably polarize him to AKs, JJ+.

There is however a fun point, which sorta dawned on me: you have 140 hands on him, so lets assume that he has at least as many on you.

With his 140 hands on you:
he could have you on around 30% range (assumption...)
you probably have cbet and/or call cbet around 40%+ (assumption...)

and all of a sudden, he gets extra 2 bucks from implied odds and lets say another 1 for SB calling flop as well. which means he is .75/5.25 preflop and thats the seven to one he needs to try and flop a set, which means that he could actually get in with any pair.

the implied odds are calculated differently obv, but this calculation is the sort of excuse that many peoples in rush seem to be using to get in with any pair and hoping to catch a set...

P.S. I still don't think that you should check call it here though, FH must be ai'd!