Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($127)
Hero ($141)
UTG ($175)
UTG+1 ($34.05)
CO ($279)
BTN ($20)
Dealt to Hero K♠ K♥
fold, fold, CO raises to $3, fold, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $13, fold, SB calls $10
FLOP ($29) 4♣ 5♠ Q♠
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $19, SB calls $18
TURN ($67) 4♣ 5♠ Q♠ 9♥
SB checks, Hero bets $38, SB calls $38
RIVER ($143) 4♣ 5♠ Q♠ 9♥ J♥
SB bets $57.40 (AI)
Originally posted by Purity
Call, no decision to be made. Odds are too good.
Agree. Btw I'd make it $24 on the flop and as played $52 on the turn. There are quite some draws out there, we don't want to give him the odds.
Stack size on river are terrible, the same if we put 24$ flop. I clic pot flop and shove turn.
I think the EV of the $24 on the flop is higher than the EV of a potsized bet because a PSB looks very strong to most people.
And actually the stacksizes aren't that terrible on the river. By making it 24 on the flop there'd be 77 in the pot on the turn so we can make it 62.
After that we have 33 left and the pot is 200 which looks like a sick spot at first, but actually it's not because from a mathematical point of view the opponent can not exploit this - my plan is to call any river and if checked to shove any river. Even considering the implied odds for our opponent he can still not make a +EV c/c on the turn.
Yeah it's true, pot is scary for most part of people, but what about betting turn and being commited to any raise when we have odd to call with Ahi ?
I see time to time regs pot in bluff, butnever a bet with 15bb left on bluff. Maybe i'm wrong, but I'd be very surprised.
As you say: we're commited. Again at first it feels like a bad spot because the opponent is probably not bluffing very often, but as a matter of fact we always have the little bit of equity we need to call and furthermore you should consider that if the opponents range for shoving is that strong he would've never folded one of those hands to an overbetshove anyway, so the result against the better hands is exactly the same.
