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[Closed] [FR] AQs nl25

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No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1110039
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $25.41
UTG: $9.47
UTG+1: $25.37
UTG+2: $12.06
MP1: $27.34
Hero (MP2): $27.32
CO: $10.98
BTN: $24.65
SB: $14.05

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with Q :club: A :club:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($2.10) 7 :club: 8 :spade: J :club: (4 players)
BB bets $0.25, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BB raises to $6.60, Hero calls $5.10

Turn: ($15.30) 5 :heart: (2 players)
BB bets $18.31, Hero folds

Villian is 10/3/12 after 512 hands. I check raise flop for value but with his stats when he re-raise it sucks. I thought that with the odds he gave me it is worth to try to hit my flush outs on turn. Should I jam flop even vs such a nit? /fold when he re-raise???


2 replies

Well imo he almost always has a set here (occasionally a str8) so i dont think jamming the flop is really a option vs this player.
Odds of hitting a flush on the turn: 18%
Equity with a flush:84%
Lets Assume he shoves every turn
So u r risking $5.1 to win $28.76
So u must hit the flush 5.1/((28.76+5.1)x0.84)=0.179
therefore it is a very marginal b/c on the flop.
btw I am not 100% if my math is correct.


If you don´t think he is ever bet/3-betting flop with flushdraws then b/c is fine. You´re just getting all-in 32% equity. At the same times I won´t really fold to 3-bet, since you´re ip so you likely get paid if you hit your flush and also he can give you free turn cards with sets if turn is 9 or T