2/3 pot and play bet/call or bet/push on the turn a better line??
villain = 48(VPIP)/0(PFR)/36(AFq)/77(hands)
River - I am getting approximately 2:1, if I am a 2:1 'dog' I have to be good here at least 33% of the time for this to be a break even or better call on the river right?
(1/(1+2) = 1/3 = 33%)
The above is a concept I have recently become aware of after reading some of the poker blueprint (by tri 'slowhabit' nguyen) which I bought recently. What I am struggling to understand is how we estimate how often we are ahead during a hand?
Presumably we can do this after the hand using something like pokerstove or the equilator, but in the heat of the moment are we just guessing?
Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
Hero (LP): $10.00
CO: $10.20
BTN: $5.13
SB: $2.16
BB: $5.50
UTG: $6.39
UTG+1: $11.03
MP: $10.28
MP+1: $11.16
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J♣ J♦
fold, fold, MP calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, CO calls $0.50, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.65, 3 players) 5♣ A♣ J♥
MP checks, Hero bets $1.13, fold, MP calls $1.13
Turn: ($3.91, 2 players) 6♣
MP checks, Hero bets $2.00, MP calls $2.00
River: ($7.91, 2 players) T♣
MP bets $6.65, Hero calls $6.37
Hero shows J♣ J♦ (Flush, Ace High) (PreFlop 88%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
MP shows 3♠ J♠ (One Pair, Jacks) (PreFlop 12%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins $19.62
came, as well Aces, maybe 2pair and etcs, therefore Calling should be doable. Just bet bigger on every street and would be much easier decision. For example sometimes if we were against very passive opponent, I'd rather even fold it there.