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[Closed] [SH] NL50 - Rivered set

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StaticMoth
Joined: 22.05.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($52.85)
BB ($50)
UTG ($28.80)
UTG+1 ($120)
CO ($51.50)
BTN ($93.70)

Dealt to Hero 6♣ 6♦

UTG raises to $1.75, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

FLOP ($5.25) Q♥ 7♠ 5♣

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks

TURN ($5.25) Q♥ 7♠ 5♣ J♥

Hero bets $3.10, BB calls $3.10, UTG calls $3.10

RIVER ($14.55) Q♥ 7♠ 5♣ J♥ 6♥

Hero bets $8, BB raises to $22, UTG folds, Hero folds

BB wins $29.10

My biggest leak atm is that my W$SD stat is a bit too low atm coz whenever I encounter a play that doesn't make sense, I go for the bluffcatch usually and end up seeing a weird monster ... So I've been trying to evaluate my river decision extra hard recently ...

Which has led me to a lot of spots where I'm not sure whether I made a good fold or a weak one ... like this ...

On the turn I just decide to attack the dead money since it looks like UTG gave up on the pot, though this might be a bit of a bad card to do it on coz now all sorts of draws possibly emerged ...

Anyways, that's not what I wanted to talk/ask about ... the river ...

River I hit & get raised ... what does villain c flop, just call turn and raise river?

Imo only things that make sense here ... is a backdoor FD he picked up@T which he hit ... or like 89 that picked up a double gutter and also hit ...

Also T9/KT have OESD that missed ... and villain has 8.3AF !!! over 204 hand sample ... but only 33% aggro frequency @River.

Getting 3:1, I guess I should make the call?

EDIT: Damn yeah, this should be easy call now that I stoved his possible holdings ... :f_cry:

EDIT02: Though UTG is still in the hand, I doubt he's bluffraising me on the river with a busted OESD three way


5 replies
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Y, I am afraid I cant fold this, although i dont think the fold is bad.

I think stabbing the turn is not good. No Jx is folding and loads of draws possible also, as you said.

I think on the river our best line may be to check/call, since we are rarely good against a river raising range, but will be ok from time to time vs a betting range.

edit: the fold vs raise on the river is good imo - 6 :heart: completes too many of their mutual draws. Not sure whether ch/f or ch/c is best.


StaticMoth
Joined: 22.05.2009

Yes, though I'm never considering c/c nor c/f there coz there are also many marginal hands that just check behind and make me lose value against ...

So my options are b/f or b/c ...


kevvu
Joined: 11.05.2008

Hey,
Looks interesting hand. But i am not so sure. Is it best idea to bet on the turn? Cause if u dont hit u are most likely just ch/folding the river. And even when u hit then i think ch/call looks pretty interesting. Cause the player can see that u are stealing on the turn and will bet river with very wide range. Missed draws, two pair, one pair... Air ??? So i am not really sure now.


StaticMoth
Joined: 22.05.2009

Yes, already wrote that the turn bet obv isn't very good in that spot, lets not focus on that

River play is the key question.


Against unknown really hard to say. Usually players don´t raise that river with missed draws and also with two pair hands, so then it should be b/f. But since you lead out turn with no equity I think b/c river is better, since sometimes you´re ahead and you can make better decisions in the future.