[Closed] Nl 100 Ak

although this is a 3bet pot, i think i can find a fold here? 8/8 nit. JJ TT AQ are ahead, we only win a semi bluff of QQ. and doubt he's bluffin much on this board, although we split with AK which he could flat.

our equity vs a TT+ AQ+ range is 28%
exclude QQ+ and its 20%
further exclude AQ as well and our equity is 32%

he's almost never folding here and his bet is definitely for value. so i'd fold vs nit

It sucks to fold but like supeyrio mentioned our equity against a TT+,AQ+ range is only 28% and I think this a valid range so we need to fold.

^+1

Unless you can expect villain to turn low pairs into a bluff here (and we have no reason to think so) we should fold to the raise.

Y, think its a turbo fold since it smacks our range so hard.

I would not look at the stats, 12 hands say nothing about the way he plays.

On the flop I think it's very close: We can maybe exclude some combos of AA and KK as he would 4bet them preflop sometimes, I would also include some combinations of KQ in his range.

Then our equity is a bit better:
board: kdjsts
Hand Equity Wins Ties
ak,tt,jj,qq,kk,aa,aq,kq 61.06% 259,130 91,077
ak 38.94% 148,753 91,077

Still, we need 37.5% to make the call so it's so close that the EV of folding and calling is about the same. Since he could sometimes just call hands like KQ on the flop or even have some JTs/KJs type of hands in his range I think it's more likely to be -EV than +EV to get it in, so I'd also b/f the flop.

overlooked 12hands.