[Closed] NL 25 AA deep river call?

I personally don´t like betting turn, since your 3b range really isn´t 5x hands you can´t really do much if he decides to bluff on the turn unless you decide to b/c turn with aces.
I would c/c turn and c/c river to try pot small and let him try to bluff with worse hands
As played: I think c/c is fine, he sometimes have there flushdraws that have to bet to win on the river

Originally posted by Kaitz20
I personally don´t like betting turn, since your 3b range really isn´t 5x hands you can´t really do much if he decides to bluff on the turn unless you decide to b/c turn with aces.
I would c/c turn and c/c river to try pot small and let him try to bluff with worse hands
As played: I think c/c is fine, he sometimes have there flushdraws that have to bet to win on the river

I don't think Villain could have those hands with 4x or 5x either.
It depends on a players "3-bet calling range".
I think that he should always call a 3bet preflop with 44 and 55, as we are deep.
Then other 4x and 5x hands would be 65s, 54s, 43s, A4s, A5s, which, I think, people doesn't call too often even if they are deep.

If thats true, then we have 2 combos (total) of 44 and 55, QQ=6 combos, KK=6 combos on the turn.
(44 and 55)/(44 and 55 and QQ and KK)=2/(2+6+6)=14%, that he has quads.

If we add only Axs
A4s and A5s = 4 combos total
Then (4+2)/(4+2+2+6+6)=30% of quads and boats.

If we also add 65s, 54s, 43s, then:
65s=2 combos, 54s=1 combo, 43s=2 combos.
Let's put it in our equation:
(2+1+2+4+2)/(2+1+2+4+2+2+6+6)=47% of hands that crash us.

(KK or QQ can also catch some outs, thats why on PokerStove you will see a little bit different result.)

So, I mean, we probably should at least call T, if we bet. (?)

I like the line, that we should check to iduce bluffs or allow weaker hands to bet for value.

Since you are both deep and your 3-bet size was not that large (Side Note: I'd prefer a larger 3-bet OOP this deep to something like 4-4.5x) he can have any PP in his preflop range.

Why do you give him only TT-QQ to get to the river with? Surely 99 is not much different than TT on that board vs a normal 3-bet range so I think most villains will call at least 2 streets with ALL pps above 66.

So his range on the river could be something like:

66-JJ = 36 combos
KK = 6 combos but lets say he only calls half of them pre and half he 4bets, so 3

QQ, 44, 55 = 5 combos

So it's about ~39 combos we beat and 5 that we lose to. Even if you include some suited aces with a 4-5 in there or some connectors it wont get larger than perhaps 25-30% of his entire range.

Furthermore if you believe this player to be rather straightforward and not turn pairs into a bluff on the river I think we should value bet small and fold to a raise (as per your read). I think if you check and you don't include many flush draws in his range it would be very close to a check/fold in my book.

Originally posted by Anger86

Originally posted by Kaitz20
I personally don´t like betting turn, since your 3b range really isn´t 5x hands you can´t really do much if he decides to bluff on the turn unless you decide to b/c turn with aces.
I would c/c turn and c/c river to try pot small and let him try to bluff with worse hands
As played: I think c/c is fine, he sometimes have there flushdraws that have to bet to win on the river

I don't think Villain could have those hands with 4x or 5x either.
It depends on a players "3-bet calling range".
I think that he should always call a 3bet preflop with 44 and 55, as we are deep.
Then other 4x and 5x hands would be 65s, 54s, 43s, A4s, A5s, which, I think, people doesn't call too often even if they are deep.

If thats true, then we have 2 combos (total) of 44 and 55, QQ=6 combos, KK=6 combos on the turn.
(44 and 55)/(44 and 55 and QQ and KK)=2/(2+6+6)=14%, that he has quads.

If we add only Axs
A4s and A5s = 4 combos total
Then (4+2)/(4+2+2+6+6)=30% of quads and boats.

If we also add 65s, 54s, 43s, then:
65s=2 combos, 54s=1 combo, 43s=2 combos.
Let's put it in our equation:
(2+1+2+4+2)/(2+1+2+4+2+2+6+6)=47% of hands that crash us.

(KK or QQ can also catch some outs, thats why on PokerStove you will see a little bit different result.)

So, I mean, we probably should at least call T, if we bet. (?)

I like the line, that we should check to iduce bluffs or allow weaker hands to bet for value.

To b/c turn we have to assume he is turning his floats and middle pairs into bluffs and raise turn with worse hands than boats. Most likely I think it should go call even with boat, since raise seems too strong and you may fold your overpair. We´re not very often beat on the river, but problem is also that he doesn´t really valuebet smt like TT, so his line are either boat, sometimes KK or float/missed draws. With aces we can likely c/c, weaker hands you may consider c/f