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[Closed] JJ capped pot. Bad river

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SanMomo
Joined: 04.07.2009

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;MP3$60:201/30/25/1.9/46/30/50/54;Hero$146,5:///////;[/tg]
1/2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant.Base 0.97 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is CO with J♥, J♦
MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, MP3 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9,50 SB) K♥, 5♥, 4♦ (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5,75 BB) 9♦ (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7,75 BB) Q♣ (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9,75 BB

fold river? i dont know if he would bet that river with AJs or TT


2 replies
Epitaph
Joined: 29.07.2006

his capping range is something like AQ+, TT+, and your only ahead vs TT here. i dont have an equity tool with me right now but i guess that you are pretty much toast on the river and even 9:1 isnt enough for a call.


firsttsunami
Joined: 23.01.2006

it's certainly close. i do agree with the range that epitaph mentioned and it really depends on whether he does bet TT at all and when he bets it, how often he does have to bet to make a call profitable by odds of 1:8,75.

you require around 12% equity to make the call worthwhile.

if he does bet TT 100% of the time:


Board: 4♦K♥5♥ 9♦ Q♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    85.58%  84.47%   1.11% { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }
MP3    14.42%  13.32%   1.11% { JdJh }

you have enough equity to make a call.

If he does bet TT 50% of the time:


Board: 4♦K♥5♥ 9♦ Q♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    91.66%  90.47%   1.19% { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc }
MP3     8.34%   7.14%   1.19% { JdJh }

you have a little less equity than required.

so it makes the call almost +-0 but i'd rather call for the sake of the information and he may sometimes also barrel with AJs? if you can confidently assume that he would not bet with TT on the river then make a laydown. :)