[Closed] nl100 Rush - ATs - turn nf ip

Let's take a look at his potential range for calling 2 streets and arriving at the river:

AQ (9 combos)
Other worse flushes perhaps (JQ, KQ, KJ, 64)
overpairs (KK - 6 c, AA - 3 c)

Worse flushes - 4 combos
Better flushes - 1 combos (68)
TP/Overpair - 18 combos

Some people might slowplay top set on the flop but I really doubt it here. You can add 1-2 combos if you want to.

I like your turn bet size although I might add a couple of big blinds to avoid the slight overshove on the river. Perhaps something like $26-$27.

As far as the river goes I rather overbet shove (or pot bet shove) because for aggro players that looks like a bluff a lot more than lets say a half pot bet. Which means that I think they are more likely to call my shove than my half pot bet.

If you expect villain to not call many rivers with 1p type hands I prefer to underbet it slightly to maybe something like ~35-40 (this is assuming he actually folds all 1p hands to my river shove or big bet).

Thus, we would get lets say $40 from 18 combos + 4 combos
And we would get our $90 from only 4 combos and the occasional 1p hand. So in this hand I prefer to get some money from 22 hands than a lot of money from just 4 hands.

On the flop it depends on the history with him, generally both options, call and raise, are possible.
Since we're slightly deep with him I'd usually also go for the raise w/o further reads.
If he 3bets we can probably not fold:

Board: 7♦5♦Q♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     60.49%  60.49%   0.00% { QQ+, 77, 55, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d6d }
BU     39.51%  39.51%   0.00% { AdTd }

as we have 40% equity even against a strong range.

As played I agree with Bogdan that a $27 turnbet sets up the stacksizes a bit better and helps us to avoid having to make a slight river-overbet.

As played I'd also shove the river, imo a small bet looks stronger anyway. Of course he gets worse odds vs the big bet and will fold oftentimes, but I think even against a small bet most regs are capable of c/folding TP.