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[Closed] OESD NL100 flat flop 3b IP

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supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

villian is 21/17/2.7 aggr factor and is capable of making moves post flop and is a winning player who doesn't multi table too much.
not too sure if calling his flop 3bet is right there. he has previously shown he's capable of 3betting flop with air vs me. but in this situation and his raise size, it seems like value + protection. not sure if i could call to hit here.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($100)
BB ($104)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($116)
UTG+2 ($100)
MP1 ($140)
CO ($235)
Hero ($110)

Dealt to Hero 8♥ 9♥

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, fold, MP1 calls $3, fold, Hero calls $3, fold, fold

FLOP ($10.50) 6♠ 7♣ 4♥

UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $6, Hero raises to $18, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $44, Hero calls $26

TURN ($98.50) 6♠ 7♣ 4♥ T♦

MP1 checks, Hero bets $63.05 (AI), MP1 calls $63.05

RIVER ($224) 6♠ 7♣ 4♥ T♦ 3♣

MP1 shows 6♥ 6♣
(Pre 51%, Flop 72.6%, Turn 22.7%)

Hero shows 8♥ 9♥
(Pre 49%, Flop 27.4%, Turn 77.3%)

Hero wins $221


1 reply
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I'd just call the flop. Our hand plays very well IP, if he has air he will c/f the turn most of the time anyway.
If you think he's bet/3betting a lot imo the raise is ok to induce, but then I'd definitely call the 3bet expecting him to c/f the turn quite often.
So I don't really call to hit, hitting the straight sometimes just adds the necessary extra equity to make floating the flop-3bet +EV.

If he shoves the turn we have to fold though because we need ~28% to call but against most hands we only have ~20%.