PLO5 AA44s top set worst possible board v TAGish type

You can't give anyone strict range of hands according to hud stats. If someone plays that way, you should have some notes of it.

In this hand the line of UTG is pretty wild. Limp-3bet. So far that sounds like 100% aces. But he is not 3betting full pot, so I have no clue what that means. But when you 4bet and he just flats, it tells me that your opponent sucks. Limp-3bet-call is just something that shouldn't be done without some GOOD reads, notes and dynamics.

It might be aces. I have seen many times in PLO5 and PLO10 when people just call instead of shoving aces preflop. I don't know if they are afraid of opponent folding or something else, but that doesn't make sense. It might be kings, it might be a rundown, it might be total air.

UTG's stats indicate that he knows something about omaha. So I suppose it's usually somekind of a rundown, maybe some premium kings.

But you really can't calculate how often your opponent has JT, and I think that is pretty irrelevant here. As your 4bet gives you SPR < 1,5 you can just shove almost any flop. If your opponent has any pocket pairs in his range he can't exploit your shove-any-flop play. Now that you hit the top set, this is instashove. Preferably with fist pump.

Opponent can't just call, so he should just raise anything he likes to stack off with. JTxx is in range, and JTxcxc is also in range. But there are lower sets, gutshot+flushdraw type of hands, etc.

You need to have 37% equity to bet-call on flop. Against JTxx you get 39%, and if he has flush draw it doesn't matter. And that is just the top of his stacking range, against bare flush draw you have over 65% equity. So you just have to bet, and after that you can't even think about anything but calling.

You don't need to know the exact number of times when opponent has JTxx. And it would be pretty impossible to calculate accordingly.

I wouldn't worry about this hand, it's a very marginal mistake since you put so much of your money in preflop.

If you were super deep I would flat the flop bet and reevaluate on the turn.

As it is, i'm happy with how you played the hand.

Good reply from Kyyberi pretty much covered everything worth mentioning.

You are massively pot committed on the flop and don't want to give any free cards.... A bad turn could lose you action too. WP.

There is a program called "Slice" that has a hand range enumerator. If you famiarize yourself with the range syntax then all sorts of problems can be solved. eg.Your hand in this post versus a villain who randomly limp-reraises any hand in the top 28% but not the top 10%. How likely is he to have flopped the str8? Ans=16%

There is however a semibug in Slice which means that in the "Hand Enumerator Dead card field" you have to separate the hands with commas. ie As,Ad,4s,4d,Ac,Kh,Qc

When it comes to doing EV calcs just think of them as 'weighted averages'.

Top 20% as defined by the ProPokerTools algorithm.

Awesome. Cheers folks!

Originally posted by Kyyberi
As your 4bet gives you SPR < 1,5 you can just shove almost any flop. If your opponent has any pocket pairs in his range he can't exploit your shove-any-flop play. Now that you hit the top set, this is instashove. Preferably with fist pump.

Cool.. I wasn't sure how far the unexploitable aspect of shoving (almost) any flop was in terms of SPR value. I knew < 1 was a shove - I guess you just move into the small mistake zone up to about, say SPR < 2 (very roughly and opponent dependent)?

Working on my fist pump... still a little weak at the mo.

JTxx is in range, and JTxcxc is also in range. But there are lower sets, gutshot+flushdraw type of hands, etc.

This is where I started to second guess. I think he is likely to fold anything other than JT** here because he knows I've flopped at least top set 99.9% of the time, so he can't call with anything worse than a straight as he's only drawing to 11 clean outs with a FD + GS (8 non board pairing :club:s and 3 gutshot outs). Or am I stuffing this up?

Bottom line here though is it doesn't matter, 'cause we're in fist pump shoving mode. ♠_cool:

You need to have 37% equity to bet-call on flop. Against JTxx you get 39%, and if he has flush draw it doesn't matter.

As an aside, I have a query on your equity calc for JT** - just to make sure I'm not going nuts:

board: A♣Q♣K♥

A♠A♦4♠4♥ 35.0995% Wins Hi: 35.0995%, Ties Hi: 0.0000%
JT** 64.9005% Wins Hi: 64.9005%, Ties Hi: 0.0000%

@ Nunki: Thanks for this! I have slice (and the new ProPokerTools app too), just need to man up and put the time in working out how to use these tools properly.

Oh, I mistyped your hand to calculator. Ad changed to Ah, that gives you 39%.