Decent Sample Size?

mccol001

Joined: 31.07.2010

23.04.2011, 14:44 0

Hey, I recently started playing the turbo 45/180 SNGs and seem to have been running incredibly hot but today I had a quick session this morning and it was a complete disaster... Just wondering what a good sample size would be to know if I was on a upswing, or a downswing now or what is happening.. ♠

I'm playing up to 30 tables at a time, here are most of my results so far:

45 Mans:

$0.55 - 70 played - ROI% = 14.3 - ITM% = 15.7 = Up $5.50 in total
$1.10 - 206 played - ROI% = 12.1 - ITM% = 20.9 = Up $27.40 in total
$3.25 - 588 played - ROI% = 44.1 - ITM% = 18.5 = Up $843.00 in total
$6.50 - 259 played - ROI% = 19.0 - ITM% = 18.5 = Up $320.50 in total
And played 3 $12 and didn't cash in any

180 Mans:

$2.20 - 262 played - ROI% = 15.5 - ITM% = 12.6 = Up $89.60 in total
$7.70 - 28 played - ROI% = -86.0 - ITM% = 7.1 = Down $185.36 in total
And played 2 $12 and didn't cash :/

But then this morning I had a quick session, played 6 $2.20's, 26 $3.25's, 15 $6.50's, 1 $7.70 and 5 $12.00 and got a ROI of -92%, ITM 3.8% and down $241.78 for the day ♠

Are things looking okay for me? Is today just a standard downsing or should I step back and play some more $3.25's before playing more $6.50's and starting $12's?

I gotta go to work in a bit and will have a long session after, and will post results..

6 replies

_Anonymous_

23.04.2011, 21:45 0

Hi Im playing 45 and 90 mans myself now and just today i lost 40 buy ins... I keep getting sucked out hehe but I looked em all up and most of the hadns were played fine so its just variance

And in these mtt sngs u can expect huge swings.

_Anonymous_

01.05.2011, 20:50 0

play more 3.25's till u get ATLEAST 1k sample, obv more would be better. and if u crush it like u do now, then move up to 6's and so on

mccol001

Joined: 31.07.2010

Posts: 170

08.05.2011, 14:48 0

Hmm after this post I got a new Macbook and I haven't got Holdem Manager or any tracking software yet but I think I've ended 2 or 3 sessions with a profit out of around 10 sessions... You can see my results and the downswing on SharkScope... But I literally now have no idea if I'm a losing SNG player, running really bad or the cashout curse or what's happening lol...

_Anonymous_

04.06.2011, 03:15 0

I had overlooked this thread earlier.

I think what you want is a confidence interval for your ROI. A rough 95% confidence interval after n tournaments is your observed ROI +- 2 SD/sqrt(n), where SD is the standard deviation for one tournament. For 9-player SNGs, the standard deviation is about 1.5 buy-ins. For 45 player tournaments, the standard deviation is about 2.8 buy-ins. For 180 player tournaments, the standard deviation depends more on your playing style, but it may be 5-8 buy-ins, more for a big winner.

So, if you play 100 45-player tournaments and have a 20% ROI, you can say your 95% confidence interval is 20% +- 2(280%)/sqrt(100), or 20% +- 56%. This means you have strong evidence that your ROI is between -36% and +76%.

It takes a very long time to figure out how often you win MTTs. You have to play long enough that you win a few times. Much of your ROI comes from the times you win the tournament, so until you play enough to win the tournament a few times, you can't expect an accurate estimate for your ROI.

amplifyd

Joined: 03.08.2009

Posts: 1,769

04.06.2011, 18:12 0

Originally posted by pzhon
I had overlooked this thread earlier.

I think what you want is a confidence interval for your ROI. A rough 95% confidence interval after n tournaments is your observed ROI +- 2 SD/sqrt(n), where SD is the standard deviation for one tournament. For 9-player SNGs, the standard deviation is about 1.5 buy-ins. For 45 player tournaments, the standard deviation is about 2.8 buy-ins. For 180 player tournaments, the standard deviation depends more on your playing style, but it may be 5-8 buy-ins, more for a big winner.

So, if you play 100 45-player tournaments and have a 20% ROI, you can say your 95% confidence interval is 20% +- 2(280%)/sqrt(100), or 20% +- 56%. This means you have strong evidence that your ROI is between -36% and +76%.

It takes a very long time to figure out how often you win MTTs. You have to play long enough that you win a few times. Much of your ROI comes from the times you win the tournament, so until you play enough to win the tournament a few times, you can't expect an accurate estimate for your ROI.

Do you know the figure for a 1000 man scheduled - in the ballpark?

_Anonymous_

07.06.2011, 09:50 0

A rough approximation is that the standard deviation grows as the number of participants to the power 0.4. So, with 1000 participants, you expect to see a standard deviation of about (1000/180)^0.4 times the standard deviation for 180 player tournaments, or about 9.5 buy-ins.

[Closed] Decent Sample Size?