[Closed] $1 turbo ring: K3s BB fold vs BU shove 4bb eff

Fold: 1297 chips, 0.1147, SD: $14.99
Win: 2607 chips, 0.2122
Lose: 587 chips, 0.0548
Tie: 1597 chips, 0.1383

Equity needed: 38.05%
Chip odds: 35.15%
Risk premium: 2.9%
Chips gained by marginal call: 58.66.
Ties count as 53.06% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $15.16.

giving villain a ~26% range, tighter than nash:
Equity Win Tie
BU 63.64% 62.83% 0.81% 22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, A2o+, KTo+, QJo
BB 36.36% 35.56% 0.81% Kd3d

Not so good for us, but I believe he is pushing at least nash even he is weak-tight. With these stack sizes even weak-tight players push a lot imo.
So I would call.

In my experience unknown villains are tight in these spots and tend to rather see more hands than making a good push here while the have at least some fold equity..

with that said we are almost getting 2:1 on our call here... so we can call pretty loose..

K3s has similar equity against a really nitty range and a 26% range... but once you start to add more hands the equity goes up..

so if for whatever reason he's shoving really wide we will lose more equity folding than we will if he's tight and we call..

so if we put in factors like he might be tilting here.. we haven't seen him with a short stack before.. and so on I would talk myself into calling.. it's sicko close tho..

especially because loosing this hand will hurt our fold equity in future spots so much..

I'll forward to the other guys just because this feels way too close to me ♦

i dont think unknowns push wide enough to call this. but i would call K8s for sure.