Beforehand, a statement: I can't seem to play NL10. No matter what I do, I lose. It's been on for weeks - I rebuild BR on NL4 to donate it back on NL10.
And it's not the players, which are A LOT more fishy on NL10. Always 2 or 3 people on the table with VP$P 50+. And yet I only lose. A lot.
Back to business: villain has only been there for 17 hands, but playins 47/27. Went to showdown 71% - beautiful, but that's no sample.
Hand:
PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
CO: $10.00
BTN: $10.87
Hero (SB): $10.00
BB: $15.09
UTG: $7.68
MP: $8.74
Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K♣ K♠
fold, MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $1.30, fold, MP calls $1.00, fold
Flop: ($3.00, 2 players) 7♥ J♦ J♣
Hero bets $1.50, MP calls $1.50
Turn: ($6.00, 2 players) 2♠
Hero bets $3.20, MP calls $3.20
River: ($12.40, 2 players) 7♦
Hero bets $4.00 and is all-in, MP calls $2.74 and is all-in
The squeeze seems obvious to me, what about the size?
OTF: how many jacks in his range? Not many, unless he's calling with AJs (horrible) or some JTs (not so horrible but still bad). If he has JJ so be it, of course. So an obvious cbet, especially because I'd never want AQ/AK do check behind and pick up a top pair or flush draw. Size: squeezed pot, it's big enough already, and the flop is dry as hell. I went for the 1/2 pot - I want to keep AK in, as well as QQ, TT, etc. - I just don't want to do it for free.
OTT: There is less reason to cbet here I admit. But what's the point on checking? Letting him bluff/float A high? I will obviously call any bet any way, and I don't want QQ and especially TT or 99 checking behind. Size: same as flop, and no point in betting bigger as I'll have an easy shove on river considering stacks left.
OTR: easy shove, easy game.
Spoiler
Hero shows K♣ K♠ (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks) (PreFlop 91%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
MP shows K♦ J♠ (Full House, Jacks full of Sevens) (PreFlop 9%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Hero wins $0.00
MP wins $16.99
edit: With 9%, not even stacking me off he had odds to call pre. Not much else to say.