[Closed] Strategy: flopped dry nuts

Bet usual size, keep it balanced.
No free cards or our hand may be trash on the turn.

Well preflop is fine so I wont comment any more on that

This is a flop where I expect a preflop raiser to cbet, so i'm happy check/calling this flop to balance the times I float out of position with air or with just a flush draw/2 pair.

If my opponent is aggressive he will likely double barrel and that's where I go for a check raise. If they check behind they have complete air and likely would have folded to a check raise on the flop anyway so the result is the same.

All i'm thinking about is balancing playing the nuts with how I would play AQ/QQ or a nut flush draw in the same spot (which is to check/call the flop) and bet 100% of turns if checked behind.

If I donk a lot this session, I donk this hand as well, probably betting 50 cents which looks a little weak and might causes opponent to raise. Then I would flat the raise putting $5.90 in the pot and having $8 left I would shove 100% of turn cards.

(since villain isn't folding the flop to a 3 bet, this way I might get them off a split if a scare card hits). If villain has a flush draw and it hits I lose either way by shoving flop or turn so that changes nothing.

I played this hand as MP. I posted this to my blog and laughed how bad that opponent was. One member said that I am too evil, as opponent played it well. And for me, he made a mistake preflop and turn. At least. Then I begun to wonder how I would play that hand.

Preflop sucks imo. Dry kings, so he will flop just pair of kings for about 75% of time. Most of the time it's the overpair, some of the times it's middlepair. So oop with just problem hand for 75% flops, doesn't sound good to me. I might even fold that hand preflop, if preflop raiser isn't total fish/spewtard/monkey. And in this hand he didn't have that kind of reads.

My thoughts came from the fact that I would cbet this flop only with nuts or total air. Nuts include THE nuts and any draw that can stand check-raise. With all other draws I would take a free card. Now the problem is that the cbet is so small. If it would have been 70c, he could have check raised to $3. That would give him pot sized bet left on turn. Let's assume that opponent calls with set or flush draw. As hero doesn't know what opponent is drawing, he gets a safe turn on 60% of time.

So he is check-raising the pot at flop, and shoving any non-spade, non-pairing turn. If board pairs or spade hits, we can assume that he loses the pot. So 60% of time he will either win the pot or money goes in with about 75% favourite. 40% time he will lose the pot.

So the most horrible scenario is that opponent will call the raise with either one of the draws, and if other draw hits he will bluff at hero. And if turn is blank he will fold to a shove. In that case hero is making -EV play as he would need to win the pot about 75% of times. But I think that if opponent is drawing with a set, he won't bluff often enough if spade comes and hero checks. And I am sure that opponent will call turn shove with his draw pretty often. So my proposed line is +EV imo.

It's not the greatest line, pretty think EV spot actually. But it makes hero's life easy. Ribbo is right on there that this is the board where opponent will double barrel if turn is blank. So if flop goes with check-call, turn is a good spot for check-raising. The problem is that if opponent has just flush draw, he might check the turn too.

What does hero do if flop goes check-call, and turn is spade or pairs the board? Check-fold?

Any time you check this flop, you're just instantly giving up the pot and you can never rep anything, nor do you have a hand that can call a turn bet and river bet pretty much ever.

Nut flush draw would cbet this flop (especially with the king kicker), AQ would cbet, AA/QQ/JJ would cbet, obviously KT would, and also complete air (and maybe even T98x).

If you cbet with just nut flush draw, what do you do if opponent raises a pot? That's why I wouldn't cbet this with a bare flush draw, even the nutflush draw. As it really can't stand a reraise.

What is our check back range, or do we (should we) even have one?

Originally posted by Kyyberi
If you cbet with just nut flush draw, what do you do if opponent raises a pot? That's why I wouldn't cbet this with a bare flush draw, even the nutflush draw. As it really can't stand a reraise.

What is our check back range, or do we (should we) even have one?

We're betting because checking really polarises our range here. I can't think of any time I would check this flop when it's such a good flop to rep for the preflop aggressor, especially in position.

If you're betting your strong hands and your bluffs and checking your draws on this flop, any time the turn blanks your opponent is going to bet full pot into you with 100% of his range if he has any clue that clearly you're weak.

And you can't call.

You have to balance hitting the turn card with getting bet off pots on the turn where a bet yourself on the flop would have won it.