Seat 1: Frys (5055 in chips)
Seat 5: hav0cLOL (5425 in chips)
Seat 9: Elfin_Jam (3020 in chips)
hav0cLOL: posts small blind 300
Elfin_Jam: posts big blind 600
HOLE CARDS
Dealt to hav0cLOL [5s 7c]
Hero pushes... correct?
OK, here i have got into a big argument with nick, where he is questioning my ridiculously superior mathematics skills! and do NOT parse this through ICM trainer or SNGwizard, stick with me and my calculations first!
Assuming villain's range is 30%, our equity is exactly 1/3:
P(push, villain folds) = 0.7.. expected gain = 0.7 * 900 = 630
P(push, villain calls, villain loses) = 0.3 * 0.333 = 0.1.. expected gain = 0.1 * 3020 = 302
P(push, villain calls, villain wins) = 0.3 * 0.666 = 0.2.. expected gain = 0.2 * -3020 = -604
so our expected gain for a push is 630+302-604 = +328 chips.
But then we subtract our loss from folding (300), which gives us a total of 628 chips gained from the move
Assuming villain's range is 50%, or equity increases to 0.35:
P(push, villain folds) = 0.5.. expected gain = 0.5 * 900 = 450
P(push, villain calls, villain loses) = 0.5 * 0.35 = 0.175.. expected gain = 0.175 * 3020 = 528.5
P(push, villain calls, villain wins) = 0.5 * 0.65 = 0.325.. expected gain = 0.325 * -3020 = -981.5
for an expected gain of 3 chips. But then we subtract our loss from folding (300), which gives us a total of 303 chips gained from the move
I AM CORRECT, RIGHT?
this is why...
