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[Closed] NL25 AK from BU

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ACi0coiu
Joined: 19.05.2010

Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1365618
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $50.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 3.6, Hands: 120022
SB: $89.46 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 20, 3B: 5, AF: 6.0, Hands: 61
BB: $49.21 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 15
UTG: $31.54 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 22, 3B: 10, AF: 17.0, Hands: 32
CO: $32.21 - VPIP: 54, PFR: 13, 3B: 14, AF: 0.8, Hands: 24

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A :diamond: K :heart:
UTG calls $0.25, CO raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.85, 3 folds, CO calls $2.85

Flop: ($8.30) 2 :heart: 4 :spade: 8 :club: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5.00, CO calls $5

Turn: ($18.30) 8 :spade: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($18.30) J :diamond: (2 players)
CO bets $7.00, Hero folds

He is a tight raiser and first I had second second thoughts about the 3bet, but in the end he is a fish and I guess I'm in front on his calling range. I think his raising=calling range.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 54.70% 47.56% 7.14% AKs, AKo
MP3 45.30% 38.15% 7.14% 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo .

His non-paired combinations are 60% of total and I think that he plays ch/c with them, so my cbet is a thin valuebet.
If I shoot out a 2nd barrel there is a chance that he's folding some of the non-paired combinations and stick in with the paired ones, so in my oppinion the 2nd barrel is bad.
On a 9- river I think I can try a very thin value, because I expect him to bet here with a pair, even if the bet is smalish.


1 reply

You can likely give up on the turn, since he mostly has there p-s and then fold to his river bet. But since you´re deep you can also play:
- bet turn 9$ and then shove most rivers or

check back turn and shove river to that bet size. He mostly has there some kind of pp and I think you have very high fold equity unless he has set or better and you can easily rep JJ that you went for pot control

But for that you need to have some good table image and opponent who can fold marginal hands