I need to figure this out so I can more effectively review my semibluff plays.
So I take this formula from the Poker Glossary
EV(Bet) = 20% * Payoff(B calls and A wins the showdown) + 10% * Payoff(B folds)+ 70% * Payoff(B calls and A loses showdown)
And try to adjust it for my example.
I am on the flop and going to try a semibluff c/r OOP. Pot is 5.5$ after Villain cbet. I am going to invest 2$, if I get called my equity is going to be 38,12%. I have to find out how much fold equity I need for my semibluff to be breakeven.
EV(0)=38% * 6.5$ + x% * 5.5$ + (62% - x)(-2$)
EV(0)=2.47 + 0.055x - 1.38 + 2x
EV(0)= 1.09 + 2.055x
2.055x= -1.09
x= -0.5304
Does this mean I need 53% Fold Equity? It seems to high to me.