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[Closed] PLO25 hard river fold with set AAA

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PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($84.51)
SB ($60.65)
Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($25.87)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, 6, 2, A
1 fold, Button bets $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.30, Button calls $2.30

Flop: ($6.90) A, A, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.25, Button calls $5.25

Turn: ($17.40) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $13, Button calls $13

River: ($43.40) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $42.40, Hero folds

Total pot: $43.40 | Rake: $1

Stats of opponent 33/28/15 (VPIP/PFR/WTS)
I feared to make bet or call because he could have full house
Or I needed to call or bet?


1 reply
Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

I don't like your preflop raise. On the most part your hand is garbage despite being double suited.

Look at your hand again as though it is unsuited and it just looks terrible:
A :spade:Q :heart:6 :club:2 :diamond:

I would not be raising this preflop from any position, especially from out of the blinds when 200 bets deep.

What happened on the flop, turn and river is exactly why you don't raise preflop, there really are very few good flops for your hand when out of position. There are other equally bad flops such as K :heart:9 :heart:3 :club: where you will always be behind unless you hit the flush and rarely will get paid off when you do.

This hand is a pretty good example of why position > cards sometimes and your only play on the river here is to check/fold.

I wouldn't even bet this flop to be honest, because you only have 4 outs to the nuts and if you don't hit either the last ace in the deck or a queen, you are always going to find yourself folding to big bets from the opposition.

Let's say the turn is a 6, you bet and the opponent pot raises. Now you're in a horrible position where you are sure he must have A8, but you're not good enough to fold, even though it can never be a bluff against a passive player who limps his button.

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand
Qd 6d 2h Ah 52.40%
**** 47.60%

So there you have it, your hand is flipping against a random 4 cards, so it feels bad to pump up the pot out of position here.