[Closed] nl2 - Bet flush draw on turn

Hello Philfox1985,

Just check it on turn, ain't worth fighting over a pot which you don't even have a hand. Plus being in freeplay pot as well.

Best regards.

A little confused here, I have seen instructional video's that reckon its better to bet here (though its marginal):

Betting 4c in order to try to win pot of 10c. So we need over 40% equity to make it a profitable move.

Approx 20% equity due to flush draw. Could potentially discount some outs due to 9 high, but also argue that there is implied odds of winning a far bigger pot on the river if you are called & hit.

Need both villians to fold more than 20% of the time to make this a +EV move, which we will usually have against most opponents if the flop has been checked?

Going to try to work this through formally:

Assumptions

Pot is 6 on flop, this is dead money, if we win it it is +6EV.
We will hit flush draw 20% of the time on the river.
If we hit the flush draw we are always ahead.
One Villain will call 50% of the pot size on the river (the other will have folded).
We don't know how likely villians are to fold on the turn, we call this probability x%.
We don't know how likely villians are to bet on the turn, we call this probability y%.

What if we bet on the turn

x% of the time Villians will fold, this is +6.

(1 - x%) of the time villian(s) call the turn.

80% of the time we miss the flush we fold river, this is -4.

20% of the time we hit flush draw, this is +17

EV = (x% * 6) + [(1-x%) * 80% * -4] + [(1-x%) * 20% * 17]

EV = 6x - 3.2 + 3.2x + 4.2 - 4.2x

EV = 6x - 3.2 + 3.2x + 3.4 - 3.4x

EV = 0.2 + 5.8x

What if we don't bet on the turn

y% of the time villian will bet the turn and we will have to fold, this is 0EV.

(1 - y%) of the time villian(s) not bet the turn.

80% of the time we miss the flush we fold river, this is -0.

20% of the time we hit flush draw, this is +9

EV = (y% * 0) + [(1-y%) * 80% * 0] + [(1-y%) * 20% * 9]

EV = [(1-y%) * 20% * 9]

EV = 1.8 - 1.8y

Conclusion

If Villian folds to bet more than 27.5% of the time its always better to bet.

If Villian bets out to bet more than 88% of the time its always better to bet.

This is based on the assumptions above, which may be unrealistic.

Of course betting is better in this spot. By that I mean if you want to continue here you basically are going for a bet as you did. And that's true that it might be even in long run profitable. But if you are checking then most likely Check/Folding since your implied odds wont be very good. Or either way if you even do hit you wont know where you stand with your 9high flush while opponent may have better one. For avoid those kind of spots like trying go broke on river with just a weak flush I do sometimes prefer here Checking over betting. But of course if you feel yourself comfortable playing like this then sure why not.

Also even if you for example put one opponent some random hand and one a made Qx hand but of course we could even wide it up, we are getting the equity:

Board: A♥6♠3♣ Q♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    63.04%  62.39%   0.65% { KQs, Q8s+, KQo, QTo+ }
UTG+1  19.43%  19.43%   0.00% { 9s4s }
UTG+2  17.54%  16.89%   0.65% { random }

Not sure which post of mine you were replying to. On my mobile, so cant edit, but my calculation above had a mistake making it look more profitable than it is. Need a 27% chance both villians fold to ensure its always the best play, not 16% as stated.

Originally posted by Philfox1985
Not sure which post of mine you were replying to. On my mobile, so cant edit, but my calculation above had a mistake making it look more profitable than it is. Need a 27% chance both villians fold to ensure its always the best play, not 16% as stated.

Guess then you should know the answer, as long your calculations were correct. I'd even say that the % is even bigger since we have to invest into $0,06 -> $0,04 so it can't be that smallish. If it would be like $0,02 then it might be ~25% needed to win the hand.

But as I already mentioned, rather go for a bet then Check/Call. But myself I'd just Check/Fold it to avoid any further mistake.

General Question

Are you encouraged to suggest a course of action that is perhaps lower variance, and helps to avoid mistakes, but is potentially not quite the best possible EV due to the stakes you are judging?

Not meant as an inflamitory question, I can see situations where its best for an in-experienced player to check/fold where for others its a clear bet. This would true where the less experienced player may be liable to get too attached to a hand & call a large bet where a more experienced player would fold?

The question of whether to bet or check...

Its correct based on the assumptions stated, but they don't allow for villian potentially having a better flush & us paying him off. It ignores the possibilty of having to fold if villian raises us on the turn too. Also, the assumption that on average villain will always call half pot is potentially too strong.

If we assume that villian will never call a bet when you hit on the river:

We Bet

EV = (x% * 6) + [(1-x%) * 80% * -4] + [(1-x%) * 20% * 10]

EV = 6x - 3.2 + 3.2x + 2 - 2x

EV = -1.2 + 7.2x

We don't bet on the turn

EV = (y% * 0) + [(1-y%) * 80% * 0] + [(1-y%) * 20% * 6]

EV = [(1-y%) * 20% * 6]

EV = 1.2 - 1.2y

We need villians to fold >33% the time for it always to be the best move. If villians fold < 16.7% of the time its -EV to bet.

The figures are surprising to me too to be honest, wasn't what I was expecting to see. However, they are a reflection of the assumptions made.

Myself I just Check how much I have to invest into the pot and how much I did invest early on. According to that I decide which one is the best play.