Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
Known players:
[tg]BU$13.65:///////;SB$17.87:///////;BB (Hero)$23.61:///////;MP3$9.60:///////;CO$25.47:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BB with 2:c, A:c.
2 folds, BU raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $1.20, BU calls $0.90.
Flop: ($2.45) J:d, 4:s, Q:c (2 players)
Hero bets $1.74, BU calls $1.74.
Turn: ($5.93) T:c (2 players)
Hero bets $4.23, BU calls $4.23.
River: ($14.39) 9:s (2 players)
Hero bets $16.44, BU calls $6.48.
Final Pot: $37.31.
tell me can this play be profitable in any way?
villain is 26/25 over 83 hands with 33% steal from bu and 54% steal from co
further he has 0% fold to cbet, he called my bet on the flop after 2-3 seconds and took like 15 seconds to call my turn bet. also i have restealed from him 2 times before in a short time period, where he folded to my 3bet, his fold to 3bet is 80% on 5 samples. He has 20% WTSD.
he 4bets AA,KK and also probably AK and QQ preflop, right? so his calling range on the flop is AQ+,JJ,QQ,44,KT+,QT+,9T and maybe 77-TT ?
I think on the turn we can narrow his calling range to AQ+,JJ,QQ,44,TT,QT+ and maybe KQ?
Board: J♦4♠Q♣ T♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 24.23% 23.26% 0.97% { Ac2c }
MP3 75.77% 74.80% 0.97% { QQ-TT, 44, AQs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QTo+ }
against this range the bluff has to work 75% to be BE, if he shoves, is that right?
now since he calls, and i dont hit, theres a scarecard on the river, on which i shove after 2-3 seconds. He now really only call a Kx hand and has to lay down any top pair, two pair and set, or is he so much commited that he will call almost always with everything mentioned above?
the next thing is, do i put him on a too high level? or would a play like this only work on NL100+? so it was a spew? ♦
