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[Closed] is this hand a correct fold?

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davidgod
Joined: 20.12.2008

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 20/40 Blinds (10 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1720)
BB (t1490)
UTG (t1520)
UTG+1 (t1580)
UTG+2 (t1075)
Hero (MP1) (t1660)
MP2 (t1695)
MP3 (t1460)
CO (t1290)
Button (t1510)

Hero's M: 27.67

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A♦, K♦
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t80, 1 fold, Hero calls t80, 6 folds

Flop: (t220) 5♥, J♠, K♠ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t165, Hero calls t165

Turn: (t550) 9♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t550, Hero folds

Total pot: t550

Spoiler

UTG+1 didn't show
Outcome: UTG+1 won t550

30dollar sng
opponent is a reg. with 10/6 stat aggre factor is 5

I think i make a correct fold , because he raise in utg+1 ,his range could be aq+ jj+
but in flop he make a 3/4 pot bet means he try to protect something and get value in the same time,

so his range could be ak, kk ,aa but maybe qq jj aq is also possible

however the turn he make a whole pot bet means he is definitley protecting something and afraid of the draw.

so what could he had ak , kk, or aa. I don't think he will bet w aq,qq,jj for second barrel. he probably know i am not fish

and it is quite wierd he minir raise ,because no reg will play ak preflop like that,so it is likely he had aa ,

is my analysis correct?


3 replies
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

to be honest, I really don't like to play the hand this way. I understand that we don't want to 3b preflop because we don't want to isolate ourselves against the very strong hands in villain's range. But once we call and hit a very good flop for us I don't think we can (or should) be getting away from top pair, top kicker. I think you can either raise the flop or shove over his turn bet.

The only hands that beat us (in his range) are AA (3 combinations), KK (one combination) and JJ (3 combinations). But you said he was aggressive so he could easily play this way with AK or A :spade:Q :spade:

I don't think you can conclude very much from his flop continuation bet. He should be doing this with his entire range (even QQ, since he is out of position). I don't think it's that lightly he would make the pot size bet on the turn against a regular with a set because you are not likely to call with your draw anyway. Without specific reads I don't think you can just assume AA because he Min raises preflop.

Overall, if he is so tight that you can't be comfortable getting all the money in with top pair top kicker versus as second barrel then in my opinion it is better to just fold preflop. Otherwise I think calling preflop and calling a continuation bet with such a strong hand but then folding the turn anyway is just burning money.


I agree with Tim, why do you call preflop or what do you want to hit if you are not happy to hit TPTK ?

Raise flop to protect, c/c down for bluff induce


If you think he is that tight a fold is fine, it looks like aces a lot to me with his bet size on the turn (lot of draws came in, etc).