[Closed] 4nl, fr, AQo again - double barrell

Hello DrDunne,

Of course! He even seems to be reasonable player. If he ain't gonna fold to CBets a lot then you very often even have to 2nd barrel it. He might even fold any kind of draws/weaker PPs and of course floats. Nice hand!

Best regards.

His range on the flop imo is Tx (JTs, QTs, KTs), PPs, 89, 7x, FD, JJ. 88-99 might call, and he could even call with draws on the turn, so why is that 2nd barrel so good? I might be wrong about these assumptions though, with that low WTS and high W$SD maybe he doesn't call with draws on the turn (especially because of paired board) and he won't call with 88-99. What do you think?

Originally posted by Tosh5457
His range on the flop imo is Tx (JTs, QTs, KTs), PPs, 89, 7x, FD, JJ. 88-99 might call, and he could even call with draws on the turn, so why is that 2nd barrel so good? I might be wrong about these assumptions though, with that low WTS and high W$SD maybe he doesn't call with draws on the turn (especially because of paired board) and he won't call with 88-99. What do you think?

Doubt that he will have that many 89 type of hands in his range. It's most likely towards PPs/FD and maybe even overcards something like AK/AQ which some backdoors and overs or even just FD. Taking that according his VPIP which most likely in this case might be towards some PPs which will very likely fold 22-99(exclude 66).

But overall I assume his range to be something like this:
QQ-22,AQs+,ATs,KTs,QTs+,JTs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,As9s,ATo+. Of course we could exclude some of the hands even but overall it's ~10% range. Which I gave is 11% but lets make it realistic and put 10% of the range. From which is going to continue ~3,50% range: maybe something like this -> QQ-TT,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,AsJs,As9s,ATo. According to his W$SD which tells me that he rarely does hero-calls so 88-99 can be very likely excluded.

Our bet has to work for ~63,8% of the time if we land a $0,60 bet size. Although we could even 2nd barrel even less which might have the same fold equity. But lets assume we do this. This means 35% of the range is going to continue so we can do a profitable CBet. Although of course it's close but we still even have working overcards which might even give us equity against any kind of hand.