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[Closed] [NL2 FR BSS] AA on drawy flop vs raise cbet

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Elertar
Joined: 12.08.2011

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.28)
BB ($2)
Hero ($3.30)
UTG+1 ($0.71)
UTG+2 ($0.53)
MP1 ($0.41)
CO ($1.74)
BTN ($3.61)

Dealt to Hero A♣ A♦

Hero raises to $0.08, UTG+1 calls $0.08, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.19) 9♥ 3♥ Q♥

Hero bets $0.14, UTG+1 raises to $0.63 (AI), Hero calls $0.49

TURN ($1.45) 9♥ 3♥ Q♥ 4♦

RIVER ($1.45) 9♥ 3♥ Q♥ 4♦ 6♦

Hero shows A♣ A♦
(Pre 83%, Flop 26.8%, Turn 18.2%)

UTG+1 shows 3♠ Q♠
(Pre 17%, Flop 73.2%, Turn 81.8%)

UTG+1 wins $1.38

UTG+1 is 86/52/2.4 over 30 hands.

I guess we can't call with such a drawy board if we don't know if the villain can bluff, right?


1 reply
veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Hello Elertar,

You need only ~34% equity here to make it break-even with rake included. Although against something like:

Board: Q♥3♥9♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    57.24%  55.48%   1.76% { AdAc }
UTG+1  42.76%  41.00%   1.76% { 99, 33, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AQo, KQo, Q9o+, JhTc }

We are getting pretty decent equity. I am going broke here. :)

Best regards.


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