hi
i'm a fairly experinced FR sng player, played on FTP before it closed and a started grinding on Stars 3.50$ FR bit more than a month ago. At the same time i started using HEM to track my stats and here is the graph:
and my stats are:
ROI 9.4% (EV adjusted: 13.4%)
ITM: 42.6% (1st:13.7%,2nd:10.5%,3rd:18.4%)
Winnings: 91.32$ (130.11$ EV adjusted)
over 277 tourneys.
Since i never used HEM before i wonder if i should trust this EV line at all and how accurate is it for 9 man sngs?
Try uploading via imageshack.Then just copy/pasty the forum code(underneath your pic) directly to your post and it will work.As for you questions-yes,you can trust the EV line if it's for 9max and it should be generally very accurate over a big number of games.However,277 tournies is such a small samle,so you shouldn't count much on it and make big conclusions.I would say that about 1k SnG's is a good number to determinate if you are a winning player on the limit and about 5k games on the same limit to narrow the variance factor,so you can get a much better idea of your true ROI.Even 1k could be misleading in same cases.
yeah i know this is still a small sampla and over a bigger sample of few thousand tourney things will be more clear, just wanted to know about the EV.
Thanks for you answer.
Hi bobo
277 SNG is a very very small sample for SNG if a sample at all. But so far your graph seems solid. Keep going congrats
Hi I'm a very experienced NL4 pro, I've been grinding over 2 months and I'm a solid winner over a 8000 hand sample. I think those who say games are dead just aren't putting in enough time and effort!
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Originally posted by thazar
Hi bobo277 SNG is a very very small sample for SNG if a sample at all. But so far your graph seems solid. Keep going congrats
Yeah i know a small sample. So far i'm satisfied with it, although i probably need to improve where i finish when i'm ITM because i'm finishing 3rd more often than 1st or 2nd, and that's the only thing bothering me. Atm it could just be variance but if it continues with a bigger sample i'll finding out what am i doing wron in those situations and try to correct it.
Hi guys,
I've moved your thread into the relevant board. Hope you don't mind 
Ingrid
Hi,
Over decent sample - 2k games+ imo, EV line provides a good 'guide' to winrate. Remeber that this limit is very fishy so winrates will drop dramatically as you rise through the stakes.
That said, I would feel quietly optimistic, if I were you.
GL
see below for discussion of redline
