Villain = 11/9/2af/21wtsd/385hands
preflop aggression was slightly higher at 3.3
he seems pretty nitty but his 3b% is 5% (5/101) total and 5% from BB (2/41). I watched a video re: 3b's which says that 3% 3b over a decent sample is usually a value range similar to QQ+ AK.
With 5% can we throw in some deceptive 3b'ing hands like suited connectors?
My thinking was that since I am raising from the button, that my perceived range is quite wide. Therefore he will 3b either for value or as a bluff more often.Obviously I can never 4bet as a bluff or for value vs his stats and given stack sizes, so that leaves us with call or fold. Due to the above reasoning and the fact that I can play postflop IP i elected to call.
5% in the equilator is as follows. Is this the correct way to determine his 3betting range?
Board: 2♥8♦8♣
Equity Win Tie
BU 30.15% 25.11% 5.04% { AhQh }
BB 69.85% 64.82% 5.04% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Flop: So I figure he would still check raise all his 88,JJ+ if he thinks I am aggressive enough and I wouldn't expect him to check raise with 99/TT here.
So he either has a pair or air IMO
so check behind or bet/fold?
I opted to bet/fold because I figured to be behind against his range but I can get better hands to fold, eg AK maybe 99/TT since he wont want to play a big pot OOP by check/calling and having to give up if the turn is nasty and since the pot his 3b it would be expensive for him to check/raise the flop only to fold if I 3b.
I am basically turning my hand into a bluff because I don't think I had showdown value and would have to improve to win IMO
Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
MP+1: $9.50
LP: $10.59
CO: $17.48
Hero (BTN): $10.10
SB: $10.00
BB: $10.58
UTG: $9.55
UTG+1: $1.70
MP: $10.52
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q♥ A♥
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, BB raises to $1.25, Hero calls $0.85
Flop: ($2.55, 2 players) 2♥ 8♦ 8♣
BB checks, Hero bets $1.27, fold
Hero wins $2.43
