[Closed] Is online poker higher variance than live

The variance is exactly the same live as it is online, the difference is online you play such a higher volume it seems like its completely different. From one month of live play you wouldn't be able to look at how good a player is really as it could all be down to variance. However one month playing live, like 150 hours multi-tabling you'd probably have a large enough sample to judge the players ability.

The thing with live poker is when you have a downswing its lasts waaaaay longer.

Its all the same just protracted over a much longer period.

How much live experience are you basing that on Scooney?

F'all, just the maths of it. If a downswing lasts a week online, how much longer is that live? Considerably. Its all the same game, 52 cards, two each - its just the peaks and troughs are last so much longer time-wise.

Somebody correct me if i'm wrong?

LOL

the variance is obviously the same...

In live there is more information given out and hence the very good live players make consistent profits again and again...

Online since there isnt too much info given out besides bet sizing and maybe timing in some cases..hence theres a lot more math involved..

Generally live play is softer than online so winrates are larger meaning the effect variance has is less.

Also Scooney, your theory on downswings lasting longer live is a bit off. There's no such thing as a "downswing", it's something fabricated in our mind to try and recognise a pattern. The cards have no memory, thus we can't compare "downswings" so to speak. Of course if we were talking about the exact same cards vs the exact same players in an online and a live match then you would be right, but then it would be a pattern, so would be a downswing rather than just a culmination of individual unlucky events.

Ah, variance. You can, and will, at some point run worse than you thought possible...

As wriggers said the bigger your edge the less likely you are to have a long break-even or losing stretch and live games are wayyyyyy softer.

sure.- more variance online cuz u play more hands online.
;p

If the math is the same, the variance must surely be the same, volume affecting it's rate rather than it's value.

As Wriggers points out, you cannot have a downswing [except you may have HAD one for one hand] because each hand is discrete from the rest, an individual if you like.
At least I think that's the way it works anyway.

variance will be the same . but as said and repeated within this thread, the higher your win rate the less the variance has a chance to get you in the red. And since you can normally have a better edge live it is generally for a good live player easier to stay in the green.

I am not a moron and understand that the probability of the random events are the same. Unless of course you subscribe to the 'online poker is rigged' movement. The variable is play styles online vs live.

The assumption being made by all is that style of play is the same both online and live. Evidence to the contrary is the poor results that some (not all) online players see when switching to live and vice versa. The evidence that some online players sometimes struggle to make adjustments to live play indicates it is not simply live games are softer as this would imply that everyone should have a higher win rate in live play than online which isn't true.

What I would ascert is that there is a certain element to accepted poker strategy that is different online that is reliant on pushing smaller edges for increased profit over long term that is not as effective in live play.

If so I wonder if perhaps adjustments to accepted online strategy could be beneficial to low volume players or if this is purely a factor of additional information from live tells etc.

Originally posted by thazar
variance will be the same . but as said and repeated within this thread, the higher your win rate the less the variance has a chance to get you in the red. And since you can normally have a better edge live it is generally for a good live player easier to stay in the green.

ya this pretty much sums up the difference in varience between live and online

Originally posted by supergaijin
I am not a moron and understand that the probability of the random events are the same. Unless of course you subscribe to the 'online poker is rigged' movement. The variable is play styles online vs live.

The assumption being made by all is that style of play is the same both online and live. Evidence to the contrary is the poor results that some (not all) online players see when switching to live and vice versa. The evidence that some online players sometimes struggle to make adjustments to live play indicates it is not simply live games are softer as this would imply that everyone should have a higher win rate in live play than online which isn't true.

What I would ascert is that there is a certain element to accepted poker strategy that is different online that is reliant on pushing smaller edges for increased profit over long term that is not as effective in live play.

If so I wonder if perhaps adjustments to accepted online strategy could be beneficial to low volume players or if this is purely a factor of additional information from live tells etc.

Well usually online players that are small winners on NL200 online will pretty much crush n200 live. Obviously there are exeptions. Personally i gets so f***ing bored playing live I end up playing like 50/30 in a 9hand live CG while i play 24/19 in 6max online games. I dont think i could ever grind live games for that reason alone. Unless there's a lot of beer around i really dont feel like playing live.

The reason variance is lower in live games is because games are much softer and its waaay easier to get reads on the fishes. You know in 5 seconds in a live table that a 50 year old guy thats totaly wasted is just easy money while it will take you a while to figure that out online, especially when multitabling. And multatbaling also deceres your edge and therefor your winrate. In a live game you are 100% focused to the hand your playing and how other players at your table are playing but when you grind 12 tables online you generally dont pay much attention to hands your not involved in.

Its simply a fact of what kind of bb/100 you can get. If you have 6bb/100 winrate and hit a downswing you will be running at -6b/100, but if your winrate in a live game is 15bb/100 and hit the same downswing you will still be winning at 3bb/100.

Hope that makes some sense lol

Negative variance is obviously lower where the games are softer. As live is softer than online, of course there is less variance.

Solution is simple, don't play SNG's or MTTs.

Cash games have much less variance. What limit do you play cash games at? SH or FR?

I have played a mix but the most volume has been NL5 SH

I am playing NL2 SH at the moment since my bankroll got stolen by Mr Lederer and Mr Ferguson as well as their friends over at the DOJ

Some nice osts ITT, as people have said already, the variance is exactly the same live vs online but you will experience it faster online because of hands per hour and the ability to multi table.

Some people take alot lower variance lines live, i/e they will limp/call instead of opening/3betting/isolating like they would online so this is something to consider when thinking about variance too.

live is this a serious question?

if your pov is hand for hand then sure online but you can play 40x more hands online

no matter how softer live players are they are not 40x+