[Closed] NL2 - set: call on the river?

Hi Desertstingray,

On the turn I would just bet again for value / protection. why?

1) we already raised his c-bet on the flop and he still called indicating as strong hand that probably wont fold

2) His stats indicate he is rather Loose preflop but passive postflop since his VPIP/PFR is 83/45 yet is overall AF is only 1.4. Since he is passive postflop I would just value bet him to death rather than bluff inducing by checking behind.

Lets say villain had something like TX, JQ, JJ+ all these of hands we beat and will not fold to a bet on this board given his stats. It is particularly improtant to get value from his FD's eg TxX or JJ :heart:. If the river misses a draw its pretty hard for him to DB bluff you on the river since we took such a strong line in previous streets. (had we not raised the flop c-bet this might be different) unless he is super aggro but his AF suggests otherwise despite your previous reads. We want to give villain an opportunity to make a big mistake against us.

3) we still have 10 outs to quads or FH if he has us beat. And if we bet, we have to Shove / bet/call since we have only a pot sized bet behind.

As played though I think we can easily call the river since 1) you have stats and reads confirming he can easily do this with many worse hands. 2) we are getting the right price:

Pot size / amount to call =
(1.27*2)+1.48 = 4.02 / 1.27 = roughly 3:1 = 1/3+1 or 1/4 or 25%

if he does this with 2pr + we have the following equity

Board: T♣9♥2♥ 6♥ A♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    31.67%  31.67%   0.00% { 2d2c }
UTG+1  68.33%  68.33%   0.00% { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 87s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Td9d, Ts9s, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, Td6d, Ts6s, Ah5h, Kh5h, Qh5h, Ah4h, Kh4h, Qh4h, Ah3h, Kh3h, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AhTs, AsTd, AsTh, Td9s, Td9c, Th9d, Th9s, Th9c, Ts9d, Ts9c }

therefore we can call since you say you think he is also capable of bluffing or wrongly value betting worse hands

NH

Thanks a lot for your answer!

Originally posted by muel294
[...]unless he is super aggro but his AF suggests otherwise despite your previous reads.[...]

I decided to go with my reads instead of the stats. I've checked it now in my db and he was most likely tilting. He called all-ins from midstacks (~40bb) with T6s and 98o.
I also found a similar hand to mine where he checked from the bb. Check/called flop and turn and then went all-in on the river, for almost twice the pot. The board was showing 3 :diamond:s and 2 kings. He had... Ace high

Originally posted by muel294
[...]2) we are getting the right price:

Pot size / amount to call =
(1.27*2)+1.48 = 4.02 / 1.27 = roughly 3:1 = 1/3+1 or 1/4 or 25%[...]

I am probably missing something here. Don't we need 33% equity??
With 25% equity our expected return is -1.27+0.25*4.02 = -0.27 .
With 33% equity our expected return is -1.27+0.33*4.02= +0.06 .

Thanks,
Ray

I am probably missing something here. Don't we need 33% equity?? With 25% equity our expected return is -1.27+0.25*4.02 = -0.27 . With 33% equity our expected return is -1.27+0.33*4.02= +0.06 . Thanks, Ray

my calc is just an estimation of how often we have to be ahead to call, not our exact equity needed to make it break even or better. Given that you think there are some bluffs in there as well (going on your prev reads I think it is an easy call)

I have not seen that method before. Maybe I missed something in the strat articles or havent done some yet. I will be using that calc in future. I assume it is:

With X% equity return = (X/100) *total pot - amount req to call = return

I have just been using the following method:

amount to call / total pot = x 100 = E* (required equity to call)
eg, 1.27/ (1.27*2+1.48) = 1.27/4.02 = 0.32 * 100 = 32%

so using your method :

with 32% = 0.32 * 4.02 = 1.29 - 1.27 = +0.02

So yes you need about 32% equity to make this break even or better play. I think using your method though seems superior.

The method I use to calc how often a call must work in order to be profitable is taken from a book I have called The Poker Blueprint, by Tri Nguyen and Aaron Davis p61

maybe Veriz can explain the subtle differences between the two concepts?

Hello DesertStingray,

Well, the 32% is actually the % how often we have to be ahead to Call. We have to be ahead 32% of the times, against your range we are closely getting it.

Although myself I would just ship on turn and protect from draws and of course get value from worse than face such a play on river.

Best Regards.