[Closed] J7s resteal attempt 4.4$ 51 players left

Hi,

How tight have you, the BTN and the SB been playing?

I guess I'd open something like this: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,53s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K2o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o (about 52%)

But if the BTN, SB and BB have been playing very tight, I might open 70-80% of my range because of the increased fold equity. But I'd be opening to a minraise anytime, and I don't see any reason to be raise-folding with a bigger raise so. So for that reason, I kinda like to believe he is actually a bit tighter than I said before.

Then he gets 41,7% pot odds to call your allin.

I guess he'll have to call with:

22+ A2s+ K9s+ QTs+ A2o+ KTo+ QJo (26%)

So that being said, you'll have about 50% Fold equity (26/52) so that's 50%*265,868= 132,934

Then you'll need (218,368-132,934)/50% = 170,236 more from the showdown.

Total pot is 453,236. So you'll need only 38% equity at the showdown. But this is only if he actually will open about 52% and will call 26%. Since he's making a pretty large bet (to be stealing), I like to believe he has something a good portion of the time. But then again, if this is his standard raise-size and he just wants to produce more fold equity on you, it's a good spot to resteal here.

This would be the range according to this calculation.

pairs
22+

Suited
A2s+
K3s+
Q5s+
J6s+
T6s+
95s+
85s+
75s+
64s+
54s

off suit
A2o+
K9o+
Q9o+
J9o+
T8o+
98o
87o

But then again this is only speaking about cEV, I don't know how deep you are for concidering ICM.

i havent been playing long at that table, i think it was maybe my first bb at that table, and yea, while playing i havent noticed that he raised to 2.3bbs, but i actually thought that he maybe intended to call off BU resteal and SB coz they were shorter than me and maybe fold to mine... anyways, tnx for the analysis:)

True it could be to give himself better odds against the SB and BTN and fold to your ship. But I would always think of this sizing to be stronger than 2bb.

if he's really solid he's probably taking a good look at the stacksizes. i'm not sure i'm restealing with your hand here!
I wouldn't open as lose as donbartos (allthough i really like your explanation a lot, thx ) because you need to fold to 2 stacksizes with a big part of the range you wrote!