22$ A7s midstack Bubble

crap. wanted to post it but you got here 1st. very unsure about my line too (I'm SB, to everyone who doesnt know).

what should SB be playing like this? (lol this is awkward but I dont wanna post it cos that will give us all results)

The action above doesnt make sense to me.

"Pre Flop: (t200) Hero is BB with A Spade 7 Spade
Hero calls t200, BTN raises to t745, SB calls t545, Hero calls t545"

How can hero call before Button acts? Or did BU limp?

I am assuming BU shoves and SB just flats. Imo, looks pretty suspicious to me. SB should be reshoving anything decent here, so this could be a trap.

Given how short BTN is, I am minded to just fold pre despite the good odds. Pretty gross getting allin post flop vs the chip leader, losing, and having the BU catch some obscure suckout. But maybe i am just results orientated (guessing ofc).

As played Im really not sure. I think we can even fold flop (ridiculous as it sounds) for the above reason. Problem is SB should be content to check it down to bust the shorty so when he bets I assume this is for value. If thats right, we have no feQ and therefore we just get the $ in behind when shoving.

As for SB, if you think you are ahead of BU's shoving range, I would just reshove, epecially vs a good reg in BB since he will be wary of you when you just call. In theory you look like you are aiming for "co-operation play", hoping BB will call to increase chances of busting BU, getting HU and ITM. But then you bet out which makes this co-operation impossible, since BB has to fold so often as his T life is still theoretically at stake.

Therefore I cant see many hands it would make sense to do this with in the long term.

There is no SB,what you see posted as the SB is actually the BB(posted 200 in chips) me and the short stack(fish) have not put any money in the pot and the fish is having the BU and possition on me and the SB(BB). So basically I am first to act,second is the fish and third as the BB is the SB. I also noticed it, but this is the HH...

Ok, so you are BU and you limp. Then fish Iso shoves and the reg cold calls, is that right?
And then its on you to decide what to do?

Assuming that is right, then I like to call as you did, but I think we have to fold once the reg leads the flop b/c he is always strong here since - as I said - he should be checking down all hands that might be vulnerable to the fish's range.

haha this is funny.

i like it pre-flop. balanced.

you should just FLAT here after the reg flats. no reason to jam and iso you against monsters when the SS is already AI. just play it safe on the bubble and only rejam for value. (ie. your trapping range pre).

BB is getting odds and he knows you will flat sometimes. i guess he has like KT-KQs,A7-AT,small pairs. something like that. he might have monsters too.

flop is a fold IMO. its the bubble . the SB is showing a lot of strength donking here and your FE sucks with teh pot this big. (sb will get odds). he MIGHT be abusing post-flop. but you need more equity to go broke here on the bubble.

I am not sure if I am correct, but I will just quickly rep my logic on that situation. I also do believe reg is kinda strong here. But this is 6man 70:30 payout, I have an Ace in a 3-way pot which I assume will be good most of the time if hits,the nut flush draw and runner-runner wheel draw. So for me to bust third I need the fish on the BTN(who has extremely loose fishy range) to win against two of us and I lose against the reg.Now how likely is that? If this was 50:30:20 FR SNG then I fully agree fold is best. But shouldn't we be willing to take more risks here? After all, if I fold, the decent reg is gonna have better than 2:1 chiplead vs me in the HU. I give the fish around 50% of hands which is very likely imo. They just panic and push whatever in this situations.

P.S. even if I set the fish shoving range to 31%,it is still 43,8:36,52%:19,70% situation in my favour. So like 90% of the time I wont bust here(80% either me or the reg wins, 20% the fish wins but half of these 20% I am winning over the reg(we are flipping against his range). I fold and the reg is gonna win over the fish like 66% of the time on average, but then my chances to finish first are hugely reduced. And when the fish doubles up, then my chances to finish in the top 2 are also hugely reduced, since fish and me are gonna have close to equal stacks. Now let's say the flop came A82 (either rainbow or with 2 cards from the same suite) and the reg leads, then we have to fold as well, right?

i did the ICM explorer calc. you need 35.95% on the flop to call it off with no fe. looks fine to jam now that ive done the wiz.

The main observation I want to make is that you are not adjusting the reg's range in accordance with his action.

Is he betting 100% of his preflop range on this flop? I don't think so. So the equilab range may well not be accurate.

I think if the reg leads on A82 flop there is no way I would fold. Since we have tp, the chances of us losing vs fish+reg is much smaller than when we have 'only' nfd and 1 overcard.

tim makes a good point about his flop donk range!

good for us. = he never donks a strong overpair/set. villain might donk a weak overpair like TT because he is afraid we will go for implicit collusion and check back this flop a high %. but even against a weak overpair we are doing good with our NFD + 1 over + it makes it much less likely the SS will win when villain is showing interest in the pot.

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not sure what villain would do with 2 spades in this spot. he might donk/call as a semi-bluff. but i think most people would just c/shove.

im actually really confused by villains flop donk range in this spot, but because im confident its not going to be an overpair/set very often it makes our flop rejam look even better.

very interested in results!

Thanks for the deep analysis, guys! Both of you! I actually fully agree that he never donks a set or AA,KK on this dry board. Another good reason for us to believe we have the full equity with 1 over and NFD. And now the results- SB(reg)- TT. BTN(fish)-AKo. I am not in love with reg's play here(with all my respect, since he is truly a very good player). I guess he got confused by my limp and that's exactly what I wanted : )

TT is what i was expecting. the limp did confuse him but i guess he changed his mind on the flop. unlucky to bubble here

Unlucky... Guess I was right with my fold flop line.

*puts on special hindsight glasses*

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
good for us. = he never donks a strong overpair/set. villain might donk a weak overpair like TT because he is afraid we will go for implicit collusion and check back this flop a high %. but even against a weak overpair we are doing good with our NFD + 1 over + it makes it much less likely the SS will win when villain is showing interest in the pot.

meh, soulread. I hate my play as well, I mean as played flop is std in my opinion, but I should've simply shoved pre.

Meh. Maybe next time

Next time I will do it with the aces <3's read really deserves admirations!

Originally posted by akrammon
meh, soulread. I hate my play as well, I mean as played flop is std in my opinion, but I should've simply shoved pre.

Meh. Maybe next time

i would just click it back pre to fuck with his head if hes trapping its just a cooler. dont really want to see a flop with TT oop this deep without initiative. really awkward