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NL100 Another mess at the blinds

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fuzzyfish
Joined: 12.01.2010
PokerStrategist

BTN is a good LAG. His BTN steal range is 55%. He is also extremely aggressive and we have some dynamics going on. He usually bets more on the flop, which is little suspicious. Turn brings flush draw so I get active and donk. I sometimes do it as a bluff or semibluff too so I don't think that makes my hand obvious. He raises! Normally I would fold of course but this guy is really tricky and really-really über-aggro. So I figure large part of his range here is either a draw or maybe complete air sometimes. So I decide to call and see what happens next. River brings another Q, he overshoves and I really don't know what to make of it. Would he raise a Q on the turn (assuming it isnt a two-pair)? Hardly. So basically in my opinion his range on the river is full houses and bluffs. The problem is I don't know how often he's bluffing here.

€1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: €282.02
SB: €99.00
Hero (BB): €108.00
UTG: €103.47
CO: €112.94

SB posts SB €0.50, Hero posts BB €1.00

Pre Flop: (€1.50) Hero has T♦ K♣

fold, fold, BTN raises to €3.00, fold, Hero calls €2.00

Flop: (€6.50, 2 players) Q♣ K♠ 6♥
Hero checks, BTN bets €3.05, Hero calls €3.05

Turn: (€12.60, 2 players) 2♠
Hero bets €7.90, BTN raises to €24.00, Hero calls €16.10

River: (€60.60, 2 players) Q♦
Hero checks, BTN bets €251.97 and is all-in, fold

BTN wins €56.97


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2 replies

3b or fold pf. as played if he is aggressive like you are saying hell barrel the turn with the bd so either c/r or c/c with the intention of letting him bluff the river.
If u are trying to induce you have to call the river imo. If he is good ill give him credit for jamming AK/AA against you but really that noting comparing to so many shit got in is range.
std would be c/c 3 streets, with a nitty image c/c twice and c/r river could be awesome.


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Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005
Oldschool Grinder

Agree with 3betforfood: The biggest mistake is probably preflop.
Even against a 56% range you're not a huge favourite:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    53.64%  52.06%   1.58% { KTo }
MP3    46.36%  44.78%   1.58% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 84s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K6o+, Q6o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }

And the fact that he's IP and very good makes this a very -EV call.

As played leading the turn to induce is an option, but it's hard to say something about it because it's history-dependant.
My default is c/c 3 streets as well - that's basically all you can do once you hit TP vs his range combined with his aggression.

As played on the river you can easily argue for either a c/c or a c/f.
The reason is as you say that his range is usually polarized - either Qx or a bluff.
If he has special reads he might try to do this with AA/AK.

So it's about his bluffingfrequency which is almost impossible to estimate just like this, I could just guess it as well.
If you weren't making any special plays I'd call river because he's probably used to people folding and will therefore bluff like this as he doesn't expect you to herocall Kx.

Also your hand doesn't look like Qx as you'd probably b/f the turn, so he can narrow down your range to Kx and monsters and monsters have very few combinations as you can't have 66 and 22 and QQ and KK 3bet pre.
KQ is the only hand left and it is quite strong so you 3bet it pre sometimes as well.


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