Kk

while he might have some random TX like AT KT QT JT T8, he could also have a ton of busted flushdraws or even play sets in a stupid manner.

You are getting 25% pot odds

What you lose to
AT (12 combos)
KT (4 combos)
QT/JT (32 combos)
T8s (3 combos)

51 combos (now you need him to only have at least 17 bluff combos to have the necessary odds to call here)

What you beat
-Busted Flushdraws (perhaps at least 20-30 combos?) - A VPIP 47 player plays a lot of suited junk
-random 2pairs or 88 (5-10 combos?)

While he is not going to valuebet worse that often, he's still a donk and we won't know for sure, especially given such great odds, we have to call. If it was a pot size bet on the river then our odds will be 33% and this would be much closer then. If it was an overbet then I would lean towards a fold, because a T is very much in his range, especially gutshots like QT and JT.

Ty coach

flop - raise size ~ 1.75
turn - over pot size shove - 4.96$ (his stack) (pot 4.35)
-------> he is going to call anyway whit his 2pairs, 88 and probably draws.

Hello cozacu,

Flop: Well, as we see you have a huge leak in raise/bet sizes. You have to fix it or you just in long run will either loose too much money or not win enough. The raise size should be here ~pot size, which would be 3x his bet size + pot = ?

As played
Turn: He doesn't have much left anymore, I don't really see why we should raise so small. While our normal raise would be more than half of his stack then just ship it here.

As played
River: For the given odds and our bad play, well... there ain't even much to comment. Should re-read about previous street and wouldn't even be here.

Best Regards.

thx veriz for breaking it down.I can see you are right.That was a really bad play

Originally posted by cozacu
thx veriz for breaking it down.I can see you are right.That was a really bad play

From mistakes we learn.