35$, AKo no overcall vs. nitcall 10bb

quick question , is this just itm with 18 paid

Originally posted by curnow
quick question , is this just itm with 18 paid

I remember it very well, it's exactly 27 with 18 paid.

imo is pretty close spot it can go both way,
i think u have ~break even pot odds call but ICM and stuff will go more toward fold but on the other hand thi 180s are very top heavy so if u win u had good chances to get more $$ then min cash and stuff

i think reg has wide range there and u r crushing his range, about nit range with your reads i think u r most often on flip and u have right pod odds to over call 3 way with AK even vs tight ranges
www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 29.26% 26.97% 2.29% { 66+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }i do think UTG has wider range the this
MP3 38.81% 34.77% 4.03% { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
CO 31.93% 26.66% 5.27% { AKo }

Originally posted by bonebt
www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 29.26% 26.97% 2.29% { 66+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }i do think UTG has wider range the this
MP3 38.81% 34.77% 4.03% { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
CO 31.93% 26.66% 5.27% { AKo }

The fact that it's top heavy doesn't really matter here, ICM = ICM, big stack is always relatively cheap.

I find this pretty meagre tbh, also, sb plays automatically, so that doesn't really help either. Still close though, totally agree, I folded here because ICM plays, and I remember a different tourney, same spot (tight range + relatively wide range, 10bb's AKo overcall spot) where it was pretty clear. We are further away from the money, but the spot is probably slightly worse (because sb messes up pot odds).

Tx for the calculation btw, it obviously helps clearing the case up, i suppose openshover will typically be a bit looser, but that probably won't change much. I for one would lean much more on suitedness then your range, and I expect him to do that as well.

yea yea i think this {22+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo} is more realistic range for utg tbh but i put tighter range to see that even vs those u r getting ~break even pot odds to call

about top heavy thing, my point was that because of the icm and that u r before bubble i might overcall and take a risk so i can get big stack and abuse people on bubble and get even bigger stack and go FTW (in this spot this scenario is not great and plausible cos u have big stack on your direct left so u cant abuse much people if call and get big stack)

tbh i know it sounds crazy/stupid but if i'm overcalling I prefer to overcall in spots like this before buble then in same spot when we r itm like last 2 tables cos 18-10 get same amount of $$ and 9 get like ~1,5x and 8 gets 2,5x etc then 10-18 and i think risk reward ratio is better before bubble then calling off at 10-18 (hope it makes sense lol)

I do think UTG is going to be wider here. So we are absolutely crushing his range.

The 9/7 player on the other hand is interesting and I tend to have a general rule of thumb to avoid single digit players. The way I look at it is that if we had to go against the MP2 range in itself I could see a fold but the initial shover adds equity that I just couldn't pass up.

I am not a huge fan on being tight in 180-mans close to the bubble for a few reasons. One, the payout schedule for a min-cash is flat so the next pay-jump isn't until the final table. Two, the payout structure as bonet suggests is very top heavy so you should definitely add weight to over calling and winning. Gambling in this stage can be very +EV especially if you feel good about your big stack play and can abuse the bubble with the remaining short-stacks at the table.

I'd rather have a 20K stack once at this stage than a 6K stack 3 times.

Originally posted by AaronLambert

I'd rather have a 20K stack once at this stage than a 6K stack 3 times.

got to quote this though

Originally posted by bonebt

Originally posted by AaronLambert

I'd rather have a 20K stack once at this stage than a 6K stack 3 times.

got to quote this though

so is that good or bad?

Originally posted by AaronLambert

Originally posted by bonebt

Originally posted by AaronLambert

I'd rather have a 20K stack once at this stage than a 6K stack 3 times.

got to quote this though

so is that good or bad?

For what it's worth, this bit of theory is very good in my book

Originally posted by AaronLambert

Originally posted by bonebt

Originally posted by AaronLambert

I'd rather have a 20K stack once at this stage than a 6K stack 3 times.

got to quote this though

so is that good or bad?

tbh i dont really know considering ICM and stuff
but I am in 20k once camp vs 6k 3times

P.S. in this case cos there is big stack to our direct left i lean more toward fold(but is pretty thin line tbh) cos we cant abuse bubble very much, but if MP3 had like 9-10k i will almost always call here

Its a shove and its not even close. icm is useless for 180's till the final table their is too many reasons to list i think aaron covered some. I might make a tight fold on the bubble but other then that im playing for first and don't include icm untill the ft.

Few quick comments on this one...

1. How many hands is the 9/7 after? If it's a small sample from mainly early-game this could be a reg-like player who's just been pretty card-dead.

2. While I agree we don't want to take a chip-neutral gamble, the almost 1500 in overlay is very significant -- we don't 33% equity in the 3way all-in.

3. I'm always getting it in here

Originally posted by CollinMoshman
Few quick comments on this one...

1. How many hands is the 9/7 after? If it's a small sample from mainly early-game this could be a reg-like player who's just been pretty card-dead.

2. While I agree we don't want to take a chip-neutral gamble, the almost 1500 in overlay is very significant -- we don't 33% equity in the 3way all-in.

3. I'm always getting it in here

1. Sample was pretty good actually, he was also nitty with higher blinds, probably not 9/7 nitty though, but close.

2/3. Thanks, I already figured this was a mistake, probably caused by making the opposite mistake once when I was on the bubble.

It kinda depends on how the table is. If it's a fairly soft table where you can steal many blinds by minraising, taking pots with cbets, etc. Then this might very much be a spot where you can "gamble" and take the slight +cEV spot to grap that big stack and become the table bully.

It also depends on how many first-in push spots you think you'll be getting. I think it's OK to take -$EV spots in this stage of the tourney to become a big stack and be bullying the table like there's no tomorrow.

Also, 9/7 doesn't tell too much tbh. I see quite a lot of 9/7 regulars in my games. Granded, these are the more nitty slightly winning regulars and it's in the 45mans, but the situation is pretty much the same.

There are some regulars who are fairly tight but still have a fairly good understanding about pushing and calling ranges with 10bb stacks etc.

IMO, stats regarding whether or not this player is a winning one, or a breakeven player, or a complete fish, are going to be much more useful.